US Likely to Record Largest Single-Year Drop in Murders, Analysts Say

The drop in murders coincides with high-profile federal anti-crime initiatives.

Members of the National Guard stand watch at the intersection of B.B. King Blvd. and Beale Street in Memphis, Tenn., on Oct. 24, 2025. George Walker IV/AP Photo

The United States is on track for the largest one-year drop in murders ever recorded, crime data analysts say.

Preliminary data from the Real Time Crime Index, a project run by New Orleans–based consulting firm AH Datalytics that tracks national crime trends, show this week that the murder rate has fallen by nearly 20 percent from 2024 to 2025.