US Likely to Record Largest Single-Year Drop in Murders, Analysts Say

The drop in murders coincides with high-profile federal anti-crime initiatives.

Members of the National Guard stand watch at the intersection of B.B. King Boulevard and Beale Street in Memphis, Tenn., on Oct. 24, 2025. George Walker IV/AP Photo

The United States is on track for the largest one-year drop in murders ever recorded, crime data analysts say.

Preliminary data from the Real-Time Crime Index, a project run by New Orleans–based consulting firm AH Datalytics that tracks national crime trends, showed that the murder rate fell by nearly 20 percent from 2024 to 2025.