US Birth Rates Increased 1 Percent in 2021, Not Enough for Generational Replacement

Americans have been having fewer children since the 1970s, far below the required numbers to effectively replace a generation. Alena Ozerova/Shutterstock

The number of births in the United States in 2021 was slightly higher than in 2020, the first annual increase since 2014, according to a recent report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

“The provisional number of births for the United States in 2021 was 3,659,289, up 1 percent from 2020,” the report pdf) stated.

“The general fertility rate was 56.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, up 1 percent from 2020 and the first increase in the rate since 2014. The total fertility rate was 1,663.5 births per 1,000 women in 2021, up 1 percent from 2020.”

According to stats from the report abstract, there was a decline in birth rates for women in age groups 15–24, and an increase for women in age groups 25–49, remained unchanged for adolescents aged 10–14, and went down by 6 percent in 2021 for teenagers aged 15–19, with 14.4 births per 1,000 females.

There was a significant increase in the cesarean delivery rate, which rose 32.1 percent during 2021. The preterm birth rate went up by 4 percent to 10.48 percent, the highest rate reported since 2007.

From 2014 to 2020, births declined by an average of 2 percent per year, the report stated. This includes a decline of 4 percent from 2019 to 2020.

For Hispanic and non-Hispanic White women, the provisional number of births rose 2 percent. For non-Hispanic black women, it declined by 2 percent. And for non-Hispanic American Indian, Alaska native, and non-Hispanic Asian women, birth rates went down 3 percent.

The provisional total fertility rate (TFR) for the United States in 2021 was 1,663.5 births per 1,000 women, an increase of 1 percent from 2020, but still below replacement levels. A generation can replace itself when the TFR is at 2,100 births per 1,000 women.

“The TFR has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007,” said the report.

Many people have sounded the alarms on persistently declining birth rates, with Elon Musk being the latest among them.

“Population collapse is the biggest threat to civilization,” the billionaire said in a May 25 tweet.

California recorded the most births in the country in 2021 at 420,031, followed by Texas at 373,340, Florida at 216,236, and New York at 210,359. The lowest number of births were in Vermont at 5,383, Wyoming at 6,230, the District of Columbia at 8,644, and Alaska at 9,258.