Russia will not give up on its war aims in Ukraine and is able to sustain a long war of attrition, some leading analysts say.
That means NATO allies must clearly define their own endgame for the hostilities and be prepared for the domestic cost of supporting a lengthy conflict in Eastern Europe.
‘Relitigate’ End of Cold War
Russia’s aim for the war in Ukraine is, at a minimum, to destabilize Ukraine and force its dependence on Russia. More likely, according to Angela Stent, a nonresident senior fellow and co-chair of the Hewett Forum on Post-Soviet Affairs at Brookings, the goal is to effectively reassemble the old Soviet empire.“[Vladimir] Putin’s goal all along has been to relitigate the entire settlement of the end of the Cold War. He does not believe that the collapse of the Soviet Union is final,” Stent said, adding that the Russian leader has stated this publicly several times.
“Ukraine is really part one, and probably the most immediately important part, of revisiting the entire settlement … including countries like Poland. In other words, the vision is really to restore a sphere of control over the post-Soviet states and a sphere of influence over the Warsaw Pact states,” she said.
At the very least, Russia is intent on keeping Ukraine from tightening ties with the West, for example, by joining NATO, as Finland did on April 1. Finland, like Ukraine, shares a border with Russia.
“What Russia wants is to prevent Ukraine from being a Western-oriented, democratic, liberal state,” said Ingrid Ask, deputy chief of mission at the Embassy of Sweden to the United States. Sweden has applied for NATO membership, which is pending.
Long Game
In any case, Ukraine’s allies should be prepared for a long conflict, analysts agreed.“I think we have to bear this in mind. This is, in [Putin’s] mind and in the mind of people who think like him, a much longer process,” Stent said.
The problem in dealing with Russia, according to Col. Juha Helle, is the country’s ability to withstand a war of attrition. Helle is a defense, military, naval, and air attaché at the Embassy of Finland to the United States.
“Although Russia has already been defeated politically, I don’t believe it can ever be defeated militarily or economically. They can continue waging this war from an economical and military point of view for quite a long time,” he said.
Leaked U.S. military documents reportedly place the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in the conflict between 189,500 and 223,000.
A long war would also serve the interests of China because it weakens both Russia and the NATO countries, according to Helle.
Cost of Victory
The Ukrainians have said they are battling for their independence and will not stop fighting, an aim that should be respected, according to Candace Rondeaux, senior director of the Future Frontlines and Planetary Politics Initiative at New America.However, supporting the war aims of Ukraine will take a toll on its allies as well, Rondeaux said.
“I think we are starting to feel this in the grocery store when we go and buy a dozen eggs. We see when we go to the gas pump, when we turn on our heat, that this existential thread between us is very real. This is a global war,” she said.
The United States and other allies will eventually have to weigh the cost of continuing to support Ukraine in the conflict, Rondeaux believes.
“We have to decide how long can we sustain this effort before it becomes corrosive for our own societies,” she said, referencing the political, economic, and human toll of the U.S. war in Afghanistan.
“So I'll just offer to you that self-determination is a nice idea. But it also requires us to be a little bit realistic and pragmatic about what we mean when we talk about alliances.”
