Former President Donald Trump’s victory in a low-turnout Iowa caucus may signal that the Republican Party isn’t particularly interested in having a primary in 2024.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who finished in a distant second and third, respectively, are soldiering on. Chris Stirewalt, a senior fellow at the AEI, called their efforts a lost cause.
Mr. Stirewalt, formerly a political editor at Fox News Channel, had just returned from Iowa. There, he saw an electorate disinterested in a primary contest that didn’t buy into the messages sent by Mr. DeSantis or Ms. Haley.
President Trump carries an air of incumbency and gains political strength even as he faces numerous indictments, Mr. Stirewalt said. This makes it incredibly hard for Republicans to argue against him, he said.
To win an election, a candidate must argue that President Trump is too old, not politically skilled enough, and too unpredictable to govern again, Mr. Stirewalt said. No one in the GOP is willing to make these arguments for fear of being bounced by President Trump’s vocal base and influential allies, he said.
Mr. DeSantis is arguing, according to Mr. Stirewalt, that he'll be what President Trump should be: a politically skilled, true conservative leader. That isn’t working.
Ms. Haley, who’s playing to the traditional Republican Party while courting moderate—and even liberal—voters who want an alternative option, is caught in a trap. She can’t criticize President Trump too harshly, lest she lose the voters whom she'd need to win primaries.
The rapid failures of the most vocal Trump critics in the field, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, show that harsh criticism of President Trump doesn’t work.
Kristen Soltis Anderson, founding partner of research firm Echelon Insights, said Ms. Haley can win the nomination only if she has a “series of miraculous dominos all fall.”
“I really don’t think that there’s too much hope for her coming out of New Hampshire, at this point, to shock the world, gain some momentum, and pull off a win in her home state of South Carolina,” Ms. Soltis Anderson said.
Mr. Stirewalt agreed.
“I am not looking for a John McCain-like rally among the disaffected Republican-leaning independents of New Hampshire,” he said. “Because I think people think it’s kind of over.”
Democrats Welcome 2020 Rematch
Anna Greenberg, a senior partner at Washington-based progressive polling and consultancy firm GQR, said the Democratic Party is in a good position heading into 2024.The Democrats are looking forward to going against President Trump again, seeing him as a fundraising and get-out-the-vote effort bonanza.
“Donald Trump hasn’t won an election since 2016,” Ms. Greenberg said.
Ms. Greenberg said that while Democrats know that President Biden isn’t the strongest candidate, they believe he has the support to win the Electoral College.
The drama surrounding both candidates may throw a wrench into the situation.
President Trump will remain mired in legal battles for most of this year. Meanwhile, President Biden is saddled with a seemingly never-ending saga surrounding his son, Hunter Biden.
The AIE panel doubted that courts would bar President Trump from running but acknowledged that President Biden’s advanced age is a problem.
Ms. Greenberg was adamant that there wouldn’t be another Democratic candidate rushed in at the last minute.
The Republicans’ second-place finisher may achieve something by being the default replacement if President Trump’s legal problems are eventually too much to handle, Ms. Soltis Anderson said.
Most Americans will see the race as a battle between a coot and a crook, Mr. Stirewalt said.
The Democrats will try to argue that President Trump is a criminal, he’s unfit for office, and he can’t be president again, he said.
President Trump, Mr. Stirewalt said, will likely use the winning playbook from 2016.
If the former president can convince voters that all politicians are rotten but that only he will bring down the price of gas and help the economy, then he can win again in 2024, he said.
The Democrats will lean heavily on the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and try to cast themselves as the last protectors of democratic institutions, Ms. Greenberg said.
The election may ultimately be a question of who will create a better outcome for voters who crave normalcy, whatever that is to them, Ms. Soltis Anderson said.
“This is going to be an election fought over who can best bring order and stability,” she said. “We should not assume that voters will just think, ‘Oh, there’s no way that can be Donald Trump.’”
