Trump Maintains Solid Advantage in New Hampshire: Polls

Even with the support of formally undeclared Granite Staters who are Democratic Party voters, Nikki Haley will struggle to beat former President Donald Trump.

Former President Donald Trump during a campaign stop in Rochester, N.H., on Jan. 21, 2024. Charles Krupa/AP Photo

Former President Donald Trump remains the candidate to beat in the New Hampshire presidential primary.

On Jan. 22, three new polls were published, all showing President Trump holds a sizable lead over his last major primary challenger. According to the Monday polls, he leads by a margin of 19 percent to 27 percent over former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

Suffolk University’s latest poll, published by the Boston Globe and other media, shows that President Trump has the support of 57.4 percent of likely Republican voters. Ms. Haley holds 38.2 percent. Only 2.2 percent remained undecided at this point in the race.

The Suffolk poll surveyed 500 Granite Staters who are likely to vote in its Republican Party presidential primary election. It was conducted between Jan. 20 and Jan. 21 and reported a 4.4 percent margin of error.

The Boston-based university has published a number of New Hampshire-only polls since October. Over time, support for both President Trump and Ms. Haley has steadily risen.

In the first edition of its New Hampshire primary poll, published in October 2023, President Trump was the top choice of 49 percent of likely voters, while 19 percent would choose Ms. Haley. At the time, another 20 percent of voters preferred Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, or businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

By the beginning of January, President Trump’s support dipped to 46 percent, while Ms. Haley’s rose to 26 percent. The remaining 22 percent supported Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Christie, or Mr. Ramaswamy.

Mr. Christie dropped out of the race ahead of the Jan. 15 Republican Party of Iowa Caucus. Mr. Ramaswamy suspended his campaign the night of the caucus after finishing in fourth place with 7.7 percent of the vote. Mr. DeSantis withdrew on Jan. 22. Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Ramaswamy have since endorsed President Trump.

A poll conducted by Monmouth University and published by the Washington Post showed a slighter but still significant lead for President Trump.

The Jan. 16 to Jan. 20 survey of 712 New Hampshirites who will potentially vote in the Republican primary determined that 52 percent would vote for President Trump and 34 percent would vote for Ms. Haley. Only 2 percent remain undecided. The Monmouth poll includes a 4.2 percent margin of error.

The Monmouth poll also included Mr. DeSantis. A total of 8 percent of respondents chose him.

In a statement attached to the poll, Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said he doesn’t think Ms. Haley can “catch the front-runner” even if officially so-called undeclared voters who are actually Democratic Party voters show up to support her.

“Trump’s base continues to be more committed and more motivated than other primary voters,” Mr. Murray said.

A final poll conducted by Insider Advantage after Mr. DeSantis dropped out of the race found his endorsement would likely send his voters to the Trump camp.

The Insider Advantage poll, conducted on Jan. 21 with 850 likely voters in the GOP primary, determined that 62 percent of respondents will vote for President Trump and 35 percent will choose Ms. Haley. A final 3 percent said they are still undecided. That poll accounts for a 4.32 percent margin of error.

Insider Advantage pollster Matt Towery said in his commentary that the state is hard to poll.

“Respondents sometimes are ‘playful’ in their answers to pollsters,” Mr. Towery said on his website. “We generally tend to under-poll Trump this year, so these numbers are a bit more substantial for him than expected.”