Trump at NATO Summit to Push ‘Historic’ 5 Percent Spending Goal Amid Global Conflicts

The Hague summit seeks to finalize a 5 percent defense spending target, yet allies disagree over timelines.

NATO secretary general Mark Rutte speaks during a media conference on the eve of the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 23, 2025. Markus Schreiber/AP

THE HAGUE, Netherlands—President Donald Trump will arrive in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 24 for a critical NATO summit, aiming to secure unprecedented defense spending commitments from allies, an issue he has championed for years.

This year’s summit is poised to set a bold new defense spending target of 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for each member country, more than doubling the current 2 percent benchmark.

Trump’s whirlwind 24-hour visit to the Netherlands comes amid a geopolitical storm in the Middle East.

The Iran–Israel conflict entered its 10th day on June 23, further escalated by U.S. airstrikes over the weekend on three Iranian nuclear facilities, which were intended to halt Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Because of the mounting tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. president is keeping things short at NATO, much like his brief Group of Seven (G7) summit appearance in Canada a week earlier.

Despite the shortened agenda, he is expected to tackle several other pressing issues, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia sanctions, and the future of the U.S. military posture in Europe.

Additionally, all eyes will be on Trump’s interactions with French President Emmanuel Macron—whom he recently criticized over Iran comments—and with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who remains unsettled by Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland.

Here is what to expect at this year’s summit:

New Defense Spending Target

The upcoming summit in The Hague will focus primarily on establishing a new defense spending target for member countries.

Trump has long been critical of NATO countries for not paying their fair share for the alliance. Since returning to the White House in January, he has intensified pressure on member states to meet higher defense spending targets.

To address Trump’s concerns, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has proposed increasing the target for member countries from the current minimum of 2 percent of GDP to 5 percent annually.

His two-tiered proposal calls for allies to allocate 3.5 percent of GDP to core defense spending and an additional 1.5 percent to infrastructure and industrial capacity.

A growing number of European NATO members, including Germany, have backed this new proposal.

This year’s summit would likely formalize the new spending target, with debates centering on the timeline and implementation.

“The president intends to secure a historic 5 percent defense spending pledge from NATO allies, which will strengthen the alliance’s combined military capabilities and ensure greater stability in Europe and the world,” a senior U.S. official told reporters during a call last week.

Trump will push allies at the upcoming summit to boost industrial capacities to create “supply chains capable of producing the critical minerals, infrastructure, weapons, and other products necessary for the security of America and her allies,” the official said.

The 2 percent GDP defense spending goal, set in 2014 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is met by 23 of NATO’s 32 members, according to the estimates.

The new 5 percent target reflects a growing consensus that Europe must take greater responsibility for its security.

“Europeans have understood that they must shoulder primary responsibility for their own security and defense in the future,” James Goldgeier and Sophie Roehse, foreign policy experts at the Brookings Institution, wrote in a recent report.

“This recognition will only strengthen NATO and should have occurred long ago.”

The timeline for achieving the 5 percent target remains contentious. While some NATO allies propose a 2035 target, several countries, driven by regional security threats, advocate for an earlier target date.

“Aside from the Baltics, who are pushing hard for 2030, most allies have been lobbying for a later date,” said Sara Moller, associate teaching professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

“But the Trump team clearly wants to light a fire and move things along faster.”

Spain Resists NATO Spending Target

NATO officials have been eager to secure consensus on a new spending commitment ahead of the summit.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced last week that his country would not commit to the proposed 5 percent defense spending target.

And on June 21, Sánchez said he had reached a deal with NATO to be excluded from the 5 percent defense spending target.

Spain allocated nearly 1.3 percent of its GDP to defense in 2024, making it the alliance’s lowest spender.

US Force Posture in Europe

The Trump administration has reaffirmed its commitment to defending NATO allies in Europe, as U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker emphasized at a security conference in Estonia in May.

The recent nomination of U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich as NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe further signals continued U.S. support for nuclear deterrence in the region, according to the Brookings Institution experts.

At the same time, many expect a reduction in the U.S. military posture in Europe this summer.

A growing view among conservatives favors a smaller U.S. footprint in Europe and a strategic shift of forces and equipment toward the Indo-Pacific to counter China.

“Advocates of this idea view China as the greatest strategic threat to U.S. national security and contend that Europeans should assume primary responsibility for deterring Russia,” Goldgeier and Roehse wrote.

U.S. officials, including Whitaker, have hinted at a review of the U.S. force posture, with potential troop reductions possibly announced after the NATO summit.

“That looming announcement will be front and center,” Moller said. “Everyone will be watching closely for any signals about what, exactly, the Pentagon plans to pull from the European theater.”

Denmark and Greenland

Trump’s interaction with Frederiksen will be critical at this week’s summit, given her unease over Trump’s interest in taking over Greenland.

Trump may raise U.S. concerns about Greenland’s potential independence and the increasing influence of Russia and China in the Arctic.

For the past eight years, both the Trump and Biden administrations have expressed worries about Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, moving toward independence.

Despite Denmark’s status as a close NATO ally, the United States fears that Copenhagen’s influence over Greenland could wane if independence gains traction.

Rising Arctic activity, driven by warming trends, is intensifying competition and tensions.

A 2008 U.S. Geological Survey report estimates that the Arctic holds 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas—about 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil and gas reserves.

The region also contains trillions of dollars in minerals, including silver, copper, gold, nickel, iron ore, and rare earth elements.

The Chinese regime in recent years has been ambitiously developing its commercial and military capabilities in the Arctic.

In addition, Russian and Chinese warships are operating together more frequently in the region.

“I think the interaction between Mette Frederiksen, the Danish prime minister, and Donald Trump is something to watch for,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Mette Frederiksen has not yet been to Washington, and there’s been a lot of strain in the bilateral relationship, and that is quite concerning because Denmark has been one of the most pro-American allies within NATO and within the European Union.”

Russia Sanctions

European allies are pressing Trump to follow through on his earlier threats to impose tough new sanctions on Russia because of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

In recent months, Trump had signaled a willingness to take a harder line against the Kremlin. But at the G7 summit, he appeared to backtrack, stating that “sanctions cost ... a lot of money.”

He also criticized G7 leaders for expelling Russia in 2014 from the group, originally called the G8.

“This was a big mistake,“ Trump told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during the G7 summit. ”You wouldn’t have that war. You have your enemy at the table.”

He also canceled a planned meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as he had to cut his trip short to focus on Iran.

Zelenskyy is expected to attend a state dinner in The Hague. And it is still unclear whether Trump will meet the Ukrainian president on the sidelines.

“I don’t think we’ll see any big announcements on Ukraine,” Moller said.

“The president’s priority remains to end the war by getting Moscow and Kyiv talking.

“Everything Washington is willing to put forward on Ukraine right now flows from that single objective, which means the administration isn’t prepared to offer more at this stage.”