Despite coming off the heels of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, Americans are projected to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday this year at record levels, with nearly 90 percent expected to hit the open road.
That is an increase of 1.6 million travelers from 2024, setting a record for the Thanksgiving holiday period.
“Roads, airports, train stations, and cruise terminals will be stuffed like a Thanksgiving turkey, so expect plenty of company,” Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho, said in a statement.
“Even with some remaining uncertainty around air travel, people are eager to carve out time to gather with loved ones and savor the holiday feast.”
Air Travel at All-Time High
The FAA said it is anticipating its busiest Thanksgiving period in 15 years, and Airlines for America—a trade association representing major U.S. airlines—is expecting 2025 to be the busiest year on record.The trade group projects that 31 million passengers will fly between Nov. 21 and Dec. 1, an all-time high, with carriers offering 45,000 additional seats each day compared with 2024 to meet the surge in demand.
“Our carriers have been preparing for months for the travel rush, and we’re extremely thankful for the one million U.S. airline workers who will make sure you’ll get home safely,” Airlines for America’s senior vice president of communications, Rebecca Spicer, said in a statement.
More than 3 million Americans are expected to fly on each of the three busiest days of the travel period: Nov. 29, Nov. 30, and Dec. 1.
During the first four weeks of the shutdown, airlines represented by the trade group canceled just 11 flights because of controller staffing issues, whereas that number climbed to 4,162 between Oct. 30 and Nov. 9.
The FAA’s flight reductions during the shutdown caused hundreds of millions of dollars in impacts on the aviation industry daily.
Had the agency increased its reductions to 10 percent, as originally planned, the daily U.S. economic impact on airlines would have risen to between $285 million and $580 million, Airlines for America estimated.
Although Americans can expect fewer disruptions during the Thanksgiving travel period than initially expected before Congress voted to reopen the government, travelers should still plan to arrive at the airport early in case of any lingering delays.
Expect Busy Roads
AAA has projected that at least 73 million Americans will travel by car between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1, accounting for nearly 90 percent of all who are leaving their homes for Thanksgiving.The number is expected to grow if flight cancellations force any travelers to drive to their destinations.
For anyone planning to rent a car this week, Hertz expects Nov. 26 to be the busiest pickup day, with Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark, New Jersey, being the five markets with the highest demand.
Gasoline prices are roughly the same as they were last year, when the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.06 on Thanksgiving Day.
Some states, cities, and markets may see gasoline prices above and below the average.
AAA recommended filling your gas tank the night before a road trip so that you do not have to do it on travel day, as well as checking the battery and tire pressure before hitting the road.
During the 2024 Thanksgiving period, AAA responded to nearly 600,000 roadside assistance calls to help drivers with flat tires, dead batteries, and empty fuel tanks.
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, predicted that roads would be most congested on Nov. 25 and Nov. 26.
Roads will likely be the busiest between 12 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time on Nov. 25 and between 11 a.m. and 8 p.m. on Nov. 26.
INRIX recommended traveling before 12 p.m. and 11 a.m., respectively, on both days.
Other Modes of Travel Increase
Travel by bus, train, and other modes of transportation is also expected to increase this year, jumping by 8.5 percent to nearly 2.5 million people.Buses and trains could see a last-minute increase in bookings this year, according to AAA, and the cruise industry is building on its record post-COVID-19 pandemic growth.
AAA is estimating that 20.7 million Americans will cruise in 2025, and 21.7 million in 2026.
Many of this year’s top domestic Thanksgiving trip destinations are in Florida, with the state’s cities of Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Tampa all making the top 10.
Rainy, Snowy Weather
The National Weather Service is forecasting cooler-than-normal temperatures for the central United States between Nov. 26 and Nov. 30, while Florida and areas in the West could see above-normal temperatures.“La Niña, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the potential for a rare [polar vortex] ... may combine to drive winter-like conditions across much of the United States late November into early December,” the weather service wrote on social media.
Between Nov. 24 and Nov. 26, a storm system is expected to shift from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding.
Another storm is forecast to blanket the northern United States with heavy snow and gusty winds throughout parts of the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and Upper Midwest.
