Trump Endorsements: Wins vs. Losses
Of the 19 gubernatorial candidates for 2022 elections, 10 have won their primaries. Only three have lost. The remaining six are pending.
Of the 132 candidates backed by Trump running for seats in the U.S. House—consisting mostly of incumbents—95 have won their primaries, two have advanced to a runoff, one was removed, and another withdrew before the primary, 30 are pending and two primaries were cancelled. Only four Trump-backed candidates have lost their primaries.
In 22 state executive races, 12 have won, two advanced to a runoff, and seven primaries are still pending. Only three have lost.
For 24 state House and Senate races, six have already won their primaries and two advanced to a runoff. The rest are pending.
Broken down to the 23 races in the all-important battleground states—17 U.S. House races, four in the U.S. Senate, two gubernatorial races, and one race each for Attorney General and Supreme Court—21 have won their primaries and on advanced to a runoff. Only two have lost.
The Trump Impeachment Vote
- Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.)
- Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.)
- Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.)
- Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.)
- Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.)
- Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.)
- Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.)
- Fred Upton (R-Mich.)
- Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio)
- Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.)
The RepercussionsSix-term Herrera is suddenly facing stiff competition from two Republican challengers, Trump-endorsed Joe Kent and a second pro-Trump candidate, Heidi St. John. The latest poll (pdf) shows Kent with a six point advantage.
Valadao, described as “one of the most endangered Republican congressional incumbents in the nation,” managed to survive his California primary and will advance to the November ballot.
In the race to represent Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, Trump-backed John Gibbs currently leads Meijer by a stunning 18 points, 46.2 percent to 28.3 percent.
The one that seems to be suffering the most from the decision to support Trump’s impeachment is Cheney.
Soon after her vote, the Wyoming Republican Party censured Cheney and voted to no longer recognize her as a member of the GOP.
Among the 1,100 registered Wyoming voters likely to participate in the primary, 52 percent said they will vote for Hageman. Only 30 percent will back Cheney.
The poll also showed that between 63 percent and 68 percent of voters in every region of Wyoming disapprove of her job performance. More significantly, 63 percent of those surveyed disapprove of her participation in the House Jan. 6 committee investigating the attack on the Capitol, 54 percent said they were less likely to support her because of her performance as part of the committee and 61 percent said her obsession with attacking Trump has affected her ability to do her job in representing the people of Wyoming.
“The big story is Liz Cheney is going to get beat,” Brad Coker Managing Director Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy said of the survey results. “That’s a foregone conclusion.”
When It’s All Said and Done“The general consensus is the Republicans are going to take back enough seats to win the house,” Coker told The Epoch Times. “The mystery is how many?”
Something Coker finds very interesting about the 2022 primary campaigns is that “Democrats are trying to advertise in Republican areas to encourage votes for the candidate they think will be easiest to beat.”
As for reclaiming the Senate, Coker said “it’s a complete toss up because, for every seat where the Republicans have a decent chance of having a pickup they’re also defending another seat where it’s been vacated by the incumbent or the incumbent has to work a little harder than they thought.”
As for the Trump endorsement, Coker believes “it does more to shore up the base” than anything else. And, while it may prove useful in some districts that already lean Republican but have a Democrat incumbent in areas that are already heavily Republican, it won’t be the gamechanger it’s made out to be.
“Obviously having the Trump endorsement in the primary is better than not having it but I don’t think it’s automatic,” Coker said. “We have seen a number of races where a candidate Trump was not backing went on to win the primary.”
As for Cheney, Coker said her decision to cast her vote to impeach Trump was part of the political hole she got herself into and the only reason why she was asked to join the Jan. 6 Committee was because the Democrats wanted to “give it the illusion of being bipartisan.”
“She’s already figured out there’s no turning back so she might as well keep digging,” Coker said. “She’s not campaigning. She’s not showing up for events. She’s spending most of her time in Washington working on this committee and running television ads so she’s not out there doing the things a serious candidate needs to do to win. I think, in a sense, she’s almost given up.”
In her case, Coker believes Cheney’s polling deficit to Hageman has more to do with Cheney’s bad choices than who Trump endorsed.
When all is said and done, Coker believes the primary will ultimately have less to do with who Trump endorses and more to do with how current Democratic policies are disrupting the lives of voters through high gas prices, soaring food costs, and supply chain issues.
“Right now, [the success of Trump’s endorsements] might be amplified by the January 6 hearings,” Coker surmised. “But come September, people are going to vote with their pocketbook.”