Thanksgiving Dinner Costs Decline as Turkey Prices Fall 16 Percent, Farm Bureau Says

Retailers have slashed turkey prices ahead of Thanksgiving, helping drive the average cost of a 10-person feast down to $55.

A frozen turkey in Los Angeles on Nov. 22, 2021. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

The cost of preparing a traditional Thanksgiving dinner is set to fall for the third consecutive year, primarily driven by sharply lower turkey prices and retailer discounts, according to new figures released by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).

The farm group’s 40th annual survey, released on Nov. 19, estimates that feeding a party of 10 with a classic holiday spread will cost $55.18, or about $5.52 per person, down by 5 percent from 2024. Prices remain below the 2022 record of $64.05, although the Farm Bureau noted that several years of elevated food costs have not been entirely erased.

The biggest price break came from the centerpiece of most Thanksgiving tables: the turkey.

A 16-pound frozen bird averaged $21.50, or $1.34 per pound, a 16 percent decline from 2024. AFBF economists said the drop reflects a combination of recovering flocks after avian influenza outbreaks and reduced consumer demand, along with aggressive promotional pricing by grocery chains.

“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” AFBF economist Faith Parum said in a statement, which noted that grocers were cutting prices in early November to pull shoppers back to turkey after a period of substituting ham, chicken, and other proteins.

Retailers, eager to attract shoppers amid moderating inflation, are offering some of their steepest Thanksgiving discounts in years. Walmart’s Thanksgiving basket—which includes a Butterball turkey—is priced about 25 percent lower than last year, according to a White House fact sheet. Target is offering a full meal for four people for under $20, its lowest price yet, and Lidl and Aldi announced markdowns that bring per-person costs to between $3.60 and $4.

Grocery chains typically lower turkey prices further as the holiday approaches. Data from the Department of Agriculture show that feature prices for frozen whole turkeys dropped again during the second week of November, consistent with retailers’ nationwide promotional efforts. Average advertised prices for frozen whole turkeys were roughly 20 to 22 percent lower than the same week in 2024, reflecting some of the steepest year-over-year markdowns in the holiday poultry market.

Some Staples Cheaper, Produce Pricier

Of the roughly dozen items AFBF tracks, half showed price declines. Stuffing mix fell by 9 percent, dinner rolls dropped by 14.6 percent, and pumpkin pie crusts edged down slightly. Cranberries and miscellaneous ingredients also cost less than last year.

The prices of wheat-based foods had some of the biggest drops. The Farm Bureau said low wheat prices helped drive down the cost of rolls, stuffing, and other flour-dependent holiday staples.

But the survey also captured sharp increases in some fresh produce. Sweet potatoes rose by 37 percent, and a basic veggie tray—carrots and celery—climbed by 61 percent, spikes the Farm Bureau attributed to weather-related supply shocks, production setbacks, and ongoing labor shortages that continue to push up farm wages.

The Farm Bureau noted that vegetables and potatoes are usually inexpensive to begin with—meaning even small increases in cents per pound can translate into large year-over-year percentage jumps.

Fresh peas, milk, and whipping cream also rose by 3 percent to 17 percent.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall said many farm operations remain under severe pressure.

“Despite modest declines in the cost of a Thanksgiving meal, I know food prices are a real concern for many families, including in rural America,” Duvall said in a statement.

“We lost 15,000 farms last year because of factors including historically low crop prices, high supply costs and trade uncertainty, which continue to squeeze farmers and ranchers. Every farm lost is another step toward consolidation and reliance on other countries for our food.”

Despite the steep retail discounts, wholesale turkey prices have moved in the opposite direction. Recent AFBF market data show wholesale prices for fresh turkeys running roughly 40 percent higher than a year ago, a reflection of firmer demand from grocers and lingering supply constraints tied to flock rebuilding.