Texas Speaker Primary Election a Litmus Test for Republican Party

Outcome of primary races in Texas could signal a national trend within the Republican Party.

Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan gavels in a special session in Austin, Texas, in July 2021. Tamir Kalifa/Getty Images

In a Texas primary contest with national implications, GOP heavy hitters are uniting to oust Republican House Speaker Dade Phelan from office on Super Tuesday.

The Republican speaker faces the fight of his political career with former President Donald Trump and Texas GOP leaders backing Mr. Phelan’s main primary opponent, David Covey, in the March 5 Republican primary.

Mr. Phelan poked more than one bear in 2023, angering many grassroots Republicans during the last Texas legislative session by leading the House impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, and failing to push GOP legislative priorities such as school choice.

The outcome of Mr. Phelan’s race stands to be a referendum on the influence of the party’s most conservative members. It could offer a glimpse into the future of the national Republican Party, according to Brendan Steinhauser, a partner with the political consulting firm Steinhauser Strategies in Austin, Texas.

“I think it’s a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party,” he said.

Under Mr. Phelan, Texas House lawmakers voted 123–23 to impeach Mr. Paxton, but he was acquitted by the Senate 19–11 on 16 articles of impeachment that alleged bribery, obstruction of justice, and abuse of public trust.

President Trump, a supporter of Mr. Paxton, got involved in the local race after calling the impeachment “unfair” and accusing Mr. Phelan of being a “RINO,” or Republican in name only.

Besides the former president, a powerful lineup of Texas Republicans—Mr. Paxton, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, and Republican Party of Texas Chairman Matt Rinaldi—are backing Mr. Phelan’s main challenger.

The Texas GOP struck another blow to Mr. Phelan’s reelection bid in February, voting to censure the speaker “for lack of fidelity to Republican principles and priorities.”

GOP leaders faulted him for Mr. Paxton’s impeachment, awarding committee chairmanships to Democrats, and allowing the death of a border protection bill and the school choice bill.

It marked only the fourth such censure in the state party’s history.

Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, also a Republican, has remained silent on Mr. Phelan’s primary race but notably hasn’t endorsed him.

People wait in line at the Waco Regional Airport ahead of former U.S. President Donald Trump's arrival, in Waco, Texas, on March 25, 2023. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Mr. Abbott, who made school choice a top priority, has campaigned against GOP House incumbents who are supported by Mr. Phelan, and who helped defeat the bill in a special session called by the governor.

Mr. Phelan, running for his 5th term to represent House District 21, was overwhelmingly voted in as speaker of the 2023 legislature.

He has relied on support from Democrats to win the speakership and has awarded chair positions to many, which rankled some Republican Party members.

Chairmanships are important because they can control which bills make it to the House floor for a vote. 

Grassroots Republicans expressed outrage that one of their own party members had attempted to remove Mr. Paxton, a fierce opponent of the Biden administration.

“The groundswell is real, and there’s organic opposition to Dade [Phelan] and his lieutenants,” Mr. Steinhauser said.

That, combined with top GOP leadership rallying conservatives against Mr. Phelan and his allies, could have a significant impact on the makeup of Texas Republicans.

“So it’s hard to know how many seats, but I do think there will be a significant number of Republicans that lose their seats in this primary,” Mr. Steinhauser said.

Lone Star Litmus Test

On the national stage, Republicans slugged it out after a conservative faction of House GOP members ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who wasn’t viewed as conservative enough.

In presidential politics, the ideological battle is similar. President Trump is betting his populist conservative message will beat his opponent Nikki Haily’s more moderate one favored by establishment Republicans.

“I would look at Texas and say this primary is going to be really indicative of where the energy is,” Mr. Steinhauser said.

He says the Republican Party has moved farther to the right for the past 14 years, beginning with the Tea Party movement in 2010 that ushered in notables such as senators Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Ted Cruz of Texas (R-Texas).

The grassroots movement was a mix of libertarians, conservatives, and populists.

“So there’s a long history of this internecine warfare in the Republican Party,” Mr. Steinhauser said.

Likewise, the Democrats have been moving further to the left with the inclusion of socialists within their party, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

President Trump is an excellent example of a grassroots candidate, Mr. Steinhauser said.

Suspended Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton (C) sits with his attorneys Tony Buzbee (L) and Mitch Little (R) as his impeachment trial continues in the Senate Chamber at the Texas Capitol in Austin on Sept. 15, 2023. Eric Gay/AP Photo

The former president now dominates the Republican Party and remains popular beyond his base, he said.

Political opponents that once opposed him, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who ran against him in 2016 for the Republican presidential nomination, have lined up behind President Trump because they see him as the inevitable nominee, he said.

Politically, Texas represents a microcosm of issues facing Republicans, such as the use of lawfare against Trump and his supporters.

Texas Republicans took to social media over Mr. Paxton’s impeachment, suspicious that liberal Republicans used lawfare to usurp the will of voters and eliminate a staunch conservative.

Accusations of wrongdoing against Mr. Paxton have been public for years, yet he easily won reelection in 2022 against George P. Bush, who was seen as an establishment candidate. Mr. Bush is the nephew of former president George W. Bush of Texas.

“I think the impeachment vote of Ken Paxton really stirred a hornet’s nest,” Mr. Steinhauser said. “I expect grassroots candidates to do really well here in Texas and around the country.”

Other Texas issues, such as securing the border to stop illegal immigration, have become national issues for Republicans as well.

In an aerial view, immigrants line up to be processed to make asylum claims at a makeshift migrant camp in El Paso, Texas, on May 11, 2023. John Moore/Getty Images

Kelly Perry, chair of the state GOP Border Security Committee, blames Mr. Phelan for letting a strong border protection bill die in the House.

House Bill 20 was a border security bill with teeth that would have “changed our lives,” Ms. Perry said.

It would have launched a new state Border Protection Unit, which would have allowed retired Border Patrol agents to serve, she said.

The Border Protection Unit Act declared that Texas was under threat from cartels and opioid trafficking and invoked Section 10, Article 1 of the U.S. Constitution, which gives states the right to defend themselves during an “invasion.”

Yet Mr. Phelan allowed a point of order to kill the bill, Ms. Perry said.

A point of order can be called when there appears to be a flaw in the bill’s language. It is a tactic often used by state Democrats to kill a bill.

However, another border-related bill, Senate Bill 4 was passed by the House under Mr. Phelan and signed into law by Mr. Abbott. The Biden administration has since challenged it.

The law makes it a Class B misdemeanor to cross the Mexico–Texas border illegally, between ports of entry. Punishment can be up to six months in jail for the initial offense. It goes into effect in early March.

Repeat offenders can face second-degree felony charges with punishment ranging from two to 20 years. Illegal immigrants can avoid prosecution under the law by agreeing to return to the country from where they entered.

Ms. Perry said elected officials who run on Republican values and then don’t follow them are the epitome of RINOs.

As seen from an aerial view a U.S. Border Patrol agent watches as illegal immigrants walk into the United States after crossing the Rio Grande from Mexico, in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Sept. 30, 2023. John Moore/Getty Images

Mr. Phelan has supported many House members with campaign contributions, and Ms. Perry believes that’s made House members more likely to follow his lead on bills instead of voting for what their constituents want.

“It is phenomenal how much money Dade Phelan donated to the Republican House representatives,” she said.

Mr. Phelan’s office did not respond to an Epoch Times request for comment.

Mr. Covey, an oil and gas consultant and former chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, is the speaker’s main opponent in the primary. Alicia Davis, a hairdresser, is the third candidate in the race.

Mr. Covey said in an email to The Epoch Times that Mr. Phelan and his Democratic allies killed important legislation.

“The support that I have seen, both in the community and from Republican leadership, sends the message that our elected officials work for the people and our values, and when they fail to do so, there are consequences,” he said.