NEW DELHI—Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Feb. 13. It will be the first meeting between the two leaders since Trump returned to the White House last month.
Amid a reignited U.S. trade war with Beijing, analysts said they expect that tariffs and China will be central to the meeting’s discussions.
Last week, the United States imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports. In retaliation, Beijing announced new tariffs on U.S. imports, including 15 percent on coal and liquefied natural gas and 10 percent on crude oil and farm equipment.
The developments generated buzz in Indian media, with Indian analysts opining that the U.S.–China trade conflict could further India’s interests by increasing orders for Indian exporters.
As a U.S.–China trade war flared during Trump’s first term as president, Indian exports to the United States rose from $57 billion to $73 billion, according to government sources cited by Indian media.
“Of course, there will be discussions on China and its trajectory as well as mutual concerns,” Anil Trigunayat, former Indian diplomat and distinguished fellow at the New Delhi-based Vivekananda International Foundation, said.
When it comes to U.S.–China relations, Trump appears to be taking a different bilateral approach, Trigunayat said.
S. D. Pradhan, India’s former deputy national security adviser, told The Epoch Times that the revived U.S.–China trade fight has “certainly” added to trade dynamics between the two countries. The trade fight provides an opportunity for India to export items on which the United States has increased tariffs for Chinese exporters, he said.
“The Modi–Trump meeting would be crucial in this respect,“ Pradhan said. “India needs to develop an effective strategy for a long-term agreement for export of Indian products to the U.S.”
He noted that the United States imports consumer goods, automobile parts, pharmaceuticals, and medical equipment from China, and textiles from Bangladesh, which is currently in turmoil. Those products could be supplied by India, he said.
Other China Factors
The Chinese regime’s expansionism in the Indo-Pacific and the risk of critical technology falling into Chinese hands will be a topic of discussion between Trump and Modi, according to Madhav Nalapat, vice chair of the Manipal Advanced Research Group.“Both seek decoupling of sensitive items from production in China,” Nalapat said. “It is an important reason why the two can be expected to have a good meeting.”
Sinha predicted that Modi will raise India’s concerns about the Chinese regime with Trump, while the U.S. president will probably talk about bilateral relations and assure Modi of continued U.S. support for the Quad alliance between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia.
Sinha said he expects the Indian prime minister to raise concerns about “the situation in Bangladesh and [the] increasing Chinese footprint in Maldives and Nepal.”
Pakistan’s worsening economic and political crisis will also be discussed, he said.
Pradhan said the Chinese regime remains the key strategic rival for both the United States and India, and Beijing will continue to make tactical adjustments vis-à-vis both nations.
“Trump may be able to get some assurances, but given China’s strategic objective, it is not likely to work in the long term,” he said.
“Strategic pressure” from the Quad nations is the only way to induce Beijing to behave acceptably, he said.
According to Pradhan, semiconductors may also be a topic of discussion when Modi visits Trump this week.
China currently controls key areas of the global semiconductor supply chain—mainly rare earth elements. A “trilateral agreement” between India, the United States, and Taiwan could counter that grip, he said.
