An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey shows 48 percent of voters support Epps and 46 percent support Behn to succeed Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) after he retired to take a job in the private sector. The district has been represented by Republicans since 1983.
The poll showed 5 percent of voters in the district are still undecided, while 2 percent plan to vote for other candidates.
The four independent candidates in the race include vessel captain Teresa “Terri” Christie, combat pilot Jon Thorp, small business owner Bobby Dodge, and pastor Robert James Sutherby.
“The special election in Tennessee’s Seventh District will come down to what groups are motivated to turn out on Election Day, and who stays home,” Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said.
Only 67,000 votes were cast in the off-cycle special election primary compared with 330,000 when Green was elected.
Kimball predicts a “stark gender divide” in the results.
“Men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51 percent to 42 percent, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50 percent to 44 percent,” Kimball said.
The poll, conducted Nov. 22-24, showed that 38 percent of the voters claimed the economy is their top issue, followed by housing affordability (15 percent), health care (13 percent), threats to democracy (13 percent), immigration (6 percent), crime (5 percent), and education (5 percent).
“You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
Behn received support from Trump’s 2024 rival as she tries to rewrite the playbook for what’s possible for Democrats in the Deep South.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, in Nashville for her book tour, spoke at a canvassing event for the Knoxville native.
But Behn faced controversy from Republicans and even musician Kid Rock, who owns a bar in the district, after a resurfaced podcast clip from 2020 showed her saying she “hates” Nashville, country music, and the tourists who flood the area.
Behn, who currently serves as a Tennessee state representative, denied that she hates Nashville.
“Now, I always want Nashville to be better, and I want Nashville to be a place where working people can thrive, right?“ Behn said in a social media video on Nov. 20. ”But sure, I get mad at the bachelorettes sometimes. I get mad at the pedal taverns.”
The Seventh District seat has been held by Republicans for four decades and covers 14 counties in middle Tennessee, including downtown Nashville and Williamson County, one of the wealthiest counties in the United States. The last Democrat to represent the district was Ed Jones, who served from 1973 to 1983.
