Social Security Payments Face 24 Percent Cut in Less Than a Decade Now, Group Projects

Some higher income couples could see annual payment reductions of around $24,000 by around 2032, says a recent analysis.

Blank checks are run through a printer at the U.S. Treasury printing facility in Philadelphia on Feb. 11, 2005. William Thomas Cain/Getty Images

Social Security recipients face a 24 percent cut to their monthly payments in less than a decade as the trust fund dries up, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

The Social Security and Medicare trust funds, the group said, are just more than seven years from insolvency, with the group citing projections from the two programs’ trustees and the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that was signed into law earlier this month.

For Social Security, the group projected that retirees could see a benefit cut of 24 percent in late 2032 unless Congress acts, according to the CRFB, a think tank that describes itself as nonpartisan.

“We estimate that this would be equal to an $18,100 annual benefit cut for a dual-earning couple retiring at the start of 2033,” the CRFB said, saying it would occur “shortly after” the Social Security trust fund goes insolvent. In contrast, a single-income couple at that income level would see a $13,600 annual benefit cut.

Meanwhile, some retirees may see reduced access to health care because of a projected 11 percent cut to Medicare Hospital Insurance payments, the group said. Cuts to Medicare insurance will “grow over time as scheduled benefits continue to outpace dedicated revenues,” it added.

The actual size of the Social Security benefit cut would vary based on a couple’s age, work history, and marital status, the CRFB said, adding that some higher-income couples could see annual payment reductions of around $24,000.

A dual- and low-income couple may see an annual cut to their benefits of around $11,000, the CRFB said in its analysis, adding that a single-income couple in the low-income tier would see their benefits drop by $8,200 over the year.

“While the absolute size of the cut would be smaller for a typical low-income couple than for a high-income couple, it would represent a larger share of their income and their past earnings,” the organization projected.

Over the coming decades, Social Security cuts would only increase as expenses outpace incoming government revenues, according to the analysis. The group projected that the cut would rise to more than 30 percent by the year 2099.

Suggesting that policymakers in the government should make decisions to deal with the trust’s looming insolvency, the analysis said that those who choose not to do so “are implicitly endorsing these deep benefit cuts for 62 million retirees in 2032 and beyond.”

“It is time for policymakers to tell the truth about the program’s finances and to pursue trust fund solutions to head off insolvency and improve the program for current and future generations,” the analysis added.

Last month, the Social Security Board of Trustees released its annual report finding that Social Security and Medicare funds will be drained earlier than previously projected. Social Security is projected to be depleted by 2034, a year earlier than the trustees’ projection, according to its report.

Meanwhile, the Medicare trustees’ report released last month said that the program’s Hospital Insurance trust fund is projected to be depleted by 2033, or three years earlier than the previous projection.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a June statement, called on Congress “to take action to support the long-term viability of these programs,” while Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano echoed that comment by calling on Congress and the federal government “to protect and strengthen the trust funds” for retired Americans.

In its most recent update for July, the Social Security Administration said that more than 74 million Americans receive Social Security or Supplemental Security Income benefits on a monthly basis.

The Epoch Times has contacted the Social Security Administration for comment.