While many Republican primaries for U.S. Senate seats on 2024 ballots across 34 states are getting crowded—with several promising inter-partisan pit fights—what had been a large field of prospective candidates appears to be getting smaller in Utah.
The latest speculative hopeful to formally declare he was not running is U.S. Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), who has confirmed he will not enter the Republican primary to vie for the party’s nod to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah).
With Mr. Curtis opting not to run, that leaves state House Speaker Rep. Brad Wilson heavily favored to outpoll Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs and Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird Jr., the founder of an oilfield supply company, in the June 25, 2024, GOP Senate primary.
Seat Wide Open
The filing deadline is not until March so the field could grow, although rumored entries into the Senate race by several prominent Utahans have not, as yet, materialized.Former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) has expressed greater interest in a prospective 2024 governor campaign but has not conclusively ruled out a Senate run.
Former Trump administration national security adviser Robert O’Brien announced in August that he would not seek Mr. Romney’s opening seat despite encouragement from Congressional conservatives.
Allegations Derail Ballard
In a Sept. 29 statement, Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes said he was withdrawing a previous expression of support for the anti-human-trafficking activist to enter the race after allegations of sexual abuse at OUR surfaced this summer.Mr. Ballard and Mr. Reyes are regarded as friends who have worked and traveled together extensively in OUR’s advocacy and in creating the International Child Rescue Laboratory in Salt Lake City. Mr. Reyes is credited as a “Sound of Freedom” associate producer.
In his statement, Mr. Reyes said he was “shocked and deeply saddened” by the allegations against Mr. Ballard and that he “will not be supporting or endorsing anyone in Utah’s 2024 U.S. Senate race.”
When Mr. Romney announced in July that he would not seek a second Senate term in 2024, Mr. Reyes issued a statement clarifying that he would not seek the seat and encouraged Mr. Ballard to do so.
“I believe I am well positioned to run for and win that seat and could serve well as a Senator,” he said. “But, after a long time consulting with my family, praying, and looking at where I can make the most difference and serve most effectively, I have decided it is not in D.C. but here at home.”
In formally announcing he would seek another term as Utah attorney general rather than run for Senate, Mr. Reyes said Mr. Romney’s retirement opens doors for others.
“That opens up an opportunity for a dear friend of mine who is a great conservative, patriot, and warrior to run and serve as the next Senator from Utah,” he said. “This person will be making an announcement in the days to come and I will be standing alongside this servant leader on a journey to the United States Senate.”
But that announcement has not come. Shortly afterward, Mr. Ballard resigned or was ousted, from OUR and condemned by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints for “morally unacceptable” behavior.
Several former female OUR employees claim Mr. Ballard subjected them to “sexual harassment, spiritual manipulation, grooming, and sexual misconduct” while engaged in undercover “couples ruse” in conducting “anti-human-trafficking investigations.”
In complaints investigated by the Davis County Attorney and the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) since December 2020, the alleged victims claim Mr. Ballard coerced them into sharing a bed and showering together to “sell” their roles as a couple.
Mr. Ballard has steadfastly denied the allegations and maintains he never engaged in any physical contact with the women. But since the claims surfaced, he has not formally announced whether he is entering the Senate race.
In an Oct. 3 post on X, formerly Twitter, Mr. Ballard sounded both like a candidate and a defendant vowing to prove his innocence as he viewed the Lincoln Monument in Washington.
Senate in 2024
There will be 34 U.S. Senate seats on ballots across the nation in November 2024, including 20 held by Democrats, three by independents, and 11 by Republicans.With Democrats defending far more seats, the scenario leaves Republicans confident heading into the 2024 elections that they can gain control of the chamber now led by Democrats, 51-49.
While all 11 GOP-held Senate seats appear “safe” or nearly so, as many as nine of the 23 incumbent Democrats/Independents could be in for difficult reelections. Elections rating services such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections project the GOP could take as many as four seats now occupied by Democrats.
Of the 20 seats now held by incumbent Democrats, at least eight are in states defined as “competitive” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections, with three Senate Democrats in states won by former President Donald Trump in 2020—West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.
The three independent Senate incumbents caucus with Democrats with two—Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont—heavily favored to be reelected.
The third Senate independent, Arizona’s Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, elected in 2018 as a Democrat before leaving the party in December 2022, faces a three-way race against Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and the winner of the Republican primary.
GOP 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has announced she will enter the Republican primary against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and former gubernatorial candidate George Nicholson.
