The end of Roe v. Wade marks a great victory for U.S. pro-life groups, but it’s not the end of their fight against abortion.
Roe v. Wade mandated that the government couldn’t regulate abortion in the first 14 weeks of pregnancy, couldn't regulate the protection of fetal life in the second 14 weeks, and could only protect fetal life after viability. Now, abortion is once again a legislative issue.
The Supreme Court's overturn of Roe v. Wade gave U.S. pro-life groups the high ground in the upcoming political battles over abortion. Even so, they'll likely face new difficulties as well.
At this point, the end of Roe still feels surreal to many in the pro-life movement.
Taking the High GroundOne of the most important aspects of the Supreme Court ruling that there's no constitutional right to abortion is the way law shapes moral boundaries, Pavone said.
Often, women assume that because abortion is legal, it’s also a moral decision to make, he said.
“The mother who is thinking about abortion is often thinking about it only because she knows it's legal. We don't find that abortion is the kind of a decision that a woman will crawl over broken glass in order to get it.”
If the law frowns on abortion, women choose it less often. In Pavone’s experience, many women don’t pursue abortion if there’s even a slight legal obstruction.
“They're very ambivalent about their abortion,” he said.
National Right to Life Committee President Carol Tobias agreed with that assessment. She noted that women who are pressured by their boyfriends or families to get abortions might feel protected by the law.
“I saw a woman writing recently that if it had been illegal, she wouldn't have done it,” Tobias said.
Now that abortion can be illegal, people are more likely to think it's immoral, she said. It’s also more likely that discussions over abortion will explore its morality instead of stopping at its legality.
“You start getting into the discussion of, ‘every abortion ends the life of another human being,’” she said.
More ChildrenAcross the United States, 22 states have passed or will soon approve laws that ban or restrict abortion.
But Pavone estimated that even if the number of abortions decreases massively, the number of new babies won’t increase by the same margin.
Many women who get abortions get multiple abortions, he said. Some find themselves getting abortions again because of a cycle of guilt.
“The mom who has an abortion, very often she feels guilty. She wants to have a replacement pregnancy, so she gets pregnant again. And then she doesn't feel worthy to have the child, and she repeats the abortion,” Pavone said. “Almost half of the abortions in America are repeat abortions.”
Now many women who live this pattern will likely have their first child and stop getting abortions or new pregnancies, he said. Birth rates will likely go up as well.
Pregnancy centers are already “gearing up” for more new babies, Pavone said.
But Hugh Brown, president of the American Life League, said he doesn’t expect the overturn of Roe will save many lives.
Companies such as Amazon offer free flights to abortion states for their employees, and it’s likely going to be easy to cross state borders to get abortions, he said. An America that’s halfway pro-life is functionally pro-abortion.
Changing LawsPro-life leaders also say that the end of Roe v. Wade will intensify the legislative debate over abortion. It’s likely that Congress and state governments will see more legislation for abortion restrictions soon, Pavone said.
He noted that future abortion laws likely won't be outright bans. Instead, politicians will likely regulate abortion.
“We're more likely to see some gestational limits that enjoy very strong public support, even among people who say they're pro-choice,” Pavone said.
Perhaps the most ambitious pro-life goal is a nationwide abortion ban. But pro-life leaders have mixed opinions on whether it’s possible anytime soon.
To get a nationwide ban on abortion, the Senate would likely have to end the filibuster, Tobias said. But this change would also make it easier for Democrats to pass extreme pro-abortion legislation.
“I don't see the filibuster in the Senate being removed anytime soon,” she said. “I mean, we're using it now to stop several horrible, horrible anti-life pieces of legislation coming through the Senate, including tax funding of abortion.”
Students for Life of America President Kristan Hawkins told The Epoch Times in an email that her organization hopes to change public opinion on abortion laws after the end of Roe.
Most Americans are confused about what Roe v. Wade meant, according to Hawkins. Americans say they favor Roe v. Wade when polled, but the majority of Americans also support some restrictions on abortion that Roe didn’t allow.
“Radical abortion supporters have been in charge of the abortion debate for almost 50 years, with now stale talking points used for generations. One of those is that 'most' people loved Roe v. Wade and loved abortion,” she said. “If you like any limits on abortion, you didn’t like Roe.”
Current polls show that 7 out of 10 Americans support limits on abortion, Hawkins said.
Roe Rebound?In politics, a big win can sometimes temporarily hurt the winners. Historical example suggests that ending Roe v. Wade will galvanize abortion supporters and leave pro-life supporters complacent.
But none of the pro-life leaders interviewed by The Epoch Times said they were experiencing a drop in funding.
“Perhaps that is because it’s well known in the pro-life community that our students are on campuses daily fighting for this generation and for their children, and that we are active in every state working to pass pro-life laws or oppose policy that would hurt women and their children,” Hawkins said about Students for Life of America’s fundraising success.