Overperforming and Still Losing: What Tennessee’s Special Election Actually Shows

After Aftyn Behn narrowed a deep-red margin in TN-7, Democrats debate whether near-misses are smart investments or just moral victories.

Democratic congressional candidate State Rep. Aftyn Behn, D-Nashville, attends a campaign event during the special election for the 7th district on Nov. 13, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. George Walker IV/AP

Democrats have spent much of the past year pointing to “overperformance” in deep-red districts as evidence that their message is breaking through in Donald Trump country.

The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is the latest test of that theory. Democrat Aftyn Behn lost to Republican Matt Van Epps this week in a district that backed President Donald Trump by more than 20 points in 2024, but she cut the margin to single digits after a flood of money, national attention, and “AOC of Tennessee” buzz on the left.