Odds of US–EU Trade Deal Are 50–50 Ahead of Tariff Deadline: Trump

European lawmakers approved a set of counter tariffs on American goods set to be enacted if a deal cannot be reached.

President Donald Trump speaks to the press before departing for Scotland from the White House on July 25, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump said there’s a 50–50 chance that the United States will finalize a trade deal with the European Union before an Aug. 1 deadline.

Speaking to a press gaggle at the White House on July 25, Trump set the odds of reaching a deal with the EU at 50 percent or less. The United States and the 27-member trading bloc have been working on making a deal since the beginning of July.

“We’re working very diligently with Europe, the EU,” Trump said. “That’s the big one right now ... I think the EU has a pretty good chance of making a deal right now.”

The U.S. government has threatened to impose 30 percent tariffs on EU goods starting Aug. 1 unless a trade deal is reached. The tariffs are part of an effort by the Trump administration to protect U.S. industries and address what it calls unfair trade practices by European countries.

To get a deal, Trump told reporters on Friday, the EU would have to “buy down” that tariff rate.

Leaders of the European Commission, the executive branch of the bloc, have repeatedly said they are focused on reaching a negotiated outcome to avert the tariffs.

Nevertheless, on July 24, EU member states voted to approve countertariffs on $109 billion worth of American goods, including soybeans, almonds, cars, and pharmaceuticals.

The European tariffs are scheduled to take effect beginning Aug. 7 if no deal is reached. So far, the EU has not enacted any countermeasures, despite new U.S. tariffs on a broad range of European exports.

The White House has downplayed the chances of a deal. Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, told Bloomberg News that reports of progress should be taken “with a grain of salt.”

The Trump administration recently struck trade agreements with Japan, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the UK. The U.S.–Japan agreement includes a 15 percent tariff on Japanese imports and commitments for Japan to invest $550 billion in the United States and open its markets to American goods.

Reuters contributed to this report.