New Iowa Poll Shows Trump Holding Commanding Lead

Former President Donald Trump speaks to a crowd of supporters at Fort Dodge Senior High School in Fort Dodge, Iowa, on Nov. 18, 2023. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

With about a month left before the big day, former President Donald Trump continues to be the top choice for likely Republican Party Iowa Caucus voters.

On Dec. 11, Selzer & Co. released a new poll conducted on behalf of The Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom Communications Corp.

The survey showed that 51 percent of respondents would pick President Trump as their first choice in the Jan. 15, 2024, Republican Caucus.

Trailing by a significant margin are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 19 percent support, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley with 16 percent, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy with 5 percent, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with 4 percent.

The poll, conducted from Dec. 2 to Dec. 7, surveyed 502 likely Republican caucus-goers and carried a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, according to Selzer & Co.

Another Iowa poll, published on Dec. 6 and released by The Trafalgar Group, also gave President Trump a significant lead. That poll, which surveyed 1,091 likely caucus-goers from Dec. 1 to Dec. 4, found that 45.3 percent support the former president.

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Following President Trump in the poll results were Mr. DeSantis with 21.7 percent, Ms. Haley with 19.4 percent, Mr. Ramaswamy with 4.7 percent, and Mr. Christie with 4.1 percent.

The Trafalgar poll carried a 2.9 percent margin of error.

Nationally, President Trump enjoys a similar lead, according to a new poll by The Wall Street Journal, GBAO, and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates.

The national poll found 59 percent support President Trump for the GOP’s presidential nomination, with Ms. Haley at 15 percent, Mr. DeSantis at 14 percent, Mr. Ramaswamy at 4 percent, and Mr. Christie at 2 percent. That poll surveyed 1,500 registered voters from Nov. 29 to Dec. 4.

New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina

With five weeks left before the Iowa Caucus, all major Republican Party candidates—with the exception of Mr. Christie—are making a major push with numerous visits to the Hawkeye State.

Nevertheless, Iowa is merely the beginning of the Republican primary season. New Hampshire’s primary will be held on Jan. 23. After that, a GOP primary will be held in Nevada on Feb. 8 and in South Carolina on Feb. 24.

As of Dec. 11, President Trump had loaded his schedule with trips to Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. He’s slated to visit Coralville, Iowa, on Dec. 13, and over the weekend, he'll hit Durham, New Hampshire, on Dec. 16, and Reno, Nevada, on Dec. 17.

He'll return to Iowa on Dec. 19 with a stop in Waterloo.

Mr. DeSantis remains focused on Iowa. He’s planning on visiting Bettendorf, Iowa, on Dec. 18. Ms. Haley’s campaign is shifting its attention to the Granite State. It'll stop in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Dec. 12, then continue in the state, visiting Newport and Keene on Dec. 13 and Atkinson on Dec. 14.

Mr. Ramaswamy will head to both Iowa and New Hampshire in the coming weeks. The candidate will make 33 campaign stops between Dec. 11 and Dec. 16. Most of the events on his dizzying schedule will be held in Iowa.

Mr. Christie, who has spent most of his time in New Hampshire, is expected to hold an event there in Londonderry on Dec. 13.