New Cook Political Report Rating Shows GOP Gains in Nevada Senate Race

The nonpartisan political analytics group shifted Nevada’s Senate race to a toss-up, representing a shift in Republicans’ favor.

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) speaks to reporters in Washington, on May 10, 2022. Alex Wong/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report has updated Nevada’s Senate race in Republicans’ favor.

On April 3, the political analytics organization, which rates political races on their likely outcome, shifted Nevada from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.”

The Nevada Senate seat, which is currently held by Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), is a key target for Republicans this cycle. Current polling shows she’s likely to face off against retired Army Capt. Sam Brown, who in the most recent polling was leading the GOP hopeful pack by 13 points.

In a blog post, Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor explained the decision to downgrade Democrats’ odds in the Silver State. She acknowledged that the rating “may be a bit surprising” in view of Democrats’ 2016 and 2020 presidential victories in the state, which hasn’t voted for a Republican for a statewide office since 2012.

But Ms. Taylor pointed to several indicators of Democratic vulnerability in the state.

First, she cited Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto’s (D-Nev.) extremely narrow Senate victory in her 2022 reelection bid, which came out to be the closest race in the country that year.

During that campaign, challenger Adam Laxalt came within less than a percent of unseating Ms. Cortez-Masto, ultimately being defeated by a margin of less than 8,000 votes.

She also cited Republican Joe Lombardo’s successful bid to defeat incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak in 2022—the first time since 2014 that an incumbent Democrat had lost the governorship in any state.

Mr. Lombardo won by roughly 1.5 percent, or about 17,000 votes, reinvigorating Republican hopes for the future in the swing state.

Ms. Taylor also noted several factors aiding Mr. Brown’s bid against Ms. Rosen.

First, as a combat veteran, Mr. Brown was involved in an IED attack in Afghanistan that left 30 percent of his body, including much of his face, with heavy burns and scarring. He received a Purple Heart for his wounds as well as a Bronze Star.

He’s also taken a softer stance on abortion than some other Republicans, saying he would respect the state’s 24-week limit and openly discussing the abortion his wife got before they met—a stance that will likely play better with Silver State voters than more hardline anti-abortion stances would.

Ms. Taylor emphasized that the “toss-up” rating hinges on Mr. Brown successfully clinching the nomination, and said that it could be reconsidered should another, weaker Republican candidate be nominated.

A Brutal Senate Map for Democrats

The downgrade of Ms. Rosen’s seat is only more bad news for Democrats facing an already brutal 2024 Senate map.

With Ms. Rosen’s addition to the “toss-up” list, she joins vulnerable Democrats in three other seats: Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), as well as the soon-to-be vacated seat of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.).

Despite strong rightward shifts in both Ohio and Montana, Ms. Taylor said, Mr. Tester and Mr. Brown have built a “brand” that could help them keep their seats. But that’s a brand that Ms. Rosen, who only joined the Senate in 2019, hasn’t had the time to build.

In addition, Republicans are practically guaranteed to flip retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W. Va.) seat and are performing well in their bid to replace outgoing Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.).

Three other Democratic seats—that of retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.)—are currently marked as “lean Democrat,” but could also be downgraded to “toss-up” later in the cycle, Ms. Taylor said.

That potentially sets the stage for a strong Republican reclamation of the Senate, where they’ve been in the minority for the past two congresses.

Republicans’ odds of retaking the Senate are only bolstered by the fact that only 11 of them are up for reelection, with only two of those seats—Texas and Florida—even conceivably open to Democratic incursion.

Presidential Implications

Aside from its implications for the battle for the Senate, the downgrading is also another piece of good news for former President Donald Trump.

Nevada last voted for a Republican for president in 2004, when the state chose to send President George W. Bush back to the White House.

Former President Donald Trump arrives for a rally in Green Bay, Wis., on April 2, 2024. Scott Olson/Getty Images

In both 2016 and 2020, President Trump lost to Democrats in the Silver State by roughly three points each time.

This time, however, those numbers could be turned on their head, as President Trump seems poised to gain a victory in Nevada for the first time in his political career.

Current polling from RealClearPolitics shows that President Trump is leading in the state by 3.2 percent, with the support of 47.5 percent of Nevadans compared to President Joe Biden’s 44.3 percent.

Should that margin hold, it could have an effect down the ballot, potentially propelling Mr. Brown or another Republican over the finish line in the state’s Senate race.