If the caucus results and entrance polling are to be believed, the Republican electorate in 2024 belongs to President Donald Trump.
For starters, nearly two-thirds of caucus-goers surveyed said they believe President Joe Biden’s 2020 election was illegitimate.
According to January 2024 data from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office, 18.5 percent of active registered Republican voters turned out for the caucus, or 5 percent of the state’s 2.2 million registered voters.
President Trump won all but one of Iowa’s 99 counties. In Johnson County, the home of the University of Iowa, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is also a former governor of South Carolina, won by a single vote.
The overall tally was markedly similar to voter polls conducted ahead of the Jan. 15 vote, with President Trump taking home 51 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis earned 21.2 percent of the vote, while Ms. Haley took home 19.1 percent. Only 2,335 votes separated the pair.
Two other GOP candidates left the race after the caucus.
“Results were weighted to match vote tallies by region and to correct for differential participation by subgroup,” the Washington Post said on Jan. 16.
Of those respondents, 56 percent were male, 41 percent were from a rural area, 41 percent were 65 or older, and 98 percent were white.
Ideologically, 89 percent of those surveyed said they were conservative. In terms of religious identification, 55 percent said they identified as a “white born-again or evangelical Christian.”
In terms of their most critical issue in the 2024 election, 38 percent cited the economy, 34 percent immigration, 12 percent foreign policy, and 11 percent abortion.
Abortion could be a significant issue in the 2024 campaign. Lately, the Democratic Party has won on the issue—both in deeply conservative states like Kansas and swing states like Ohio—while Republicans have lost.
Out of the Iowa respondents, 61 percent said they favor “banning most/all abortion nationwide.”
The poll asked several questions that play heavily into President Trump’s likely general election campaign platform.
First, it asked voters if they thought President Joe Biden legitimately won in 2020. The large majority, 66 percent, said no.
Second, surveyors asked if President Trump would be fit for the presidency even if he’s convicted of a crime, with 65 percent saying yes.
Third, it asked voters if they identified as part of the so-called Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement. Responders split, with 50 percent saying no and 46 percent saying yes.
In most of the entrance poll categories, there was little significant separation between voters backing President Trump and those picking either Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Ramaswamy, or Mr. Hutchinson.
However, there was a notable difference in respondents who said they were caucusing for Ms. Haley.
On ideology, 63 percent of voters who identified as either moderate or liberal voted for Ms. Haley. Only 6 percent of that bloc went for Mr. DeSantis, and 22 percent chose President Trump.
In terms of education, out of the 17 percent of caucus-goers who said they had a Master’s degree or higher, the largest number—38 percent—voted for Ms. Haley.
On Trump-specific questions, Haley voters had markedly different responses.
On the legitimacy of the 2020 election, 53 percent of Haley supporters said President Biden was elected legitimately.
On President Trump’s eligibility to serve even if convicted, 49 percent said no, he isn’t.
Asked if they identified with the MAGA movement, 50 percent said no, they don’t. Haley voters made up 35 percent of that block.
On the timing of their decision, most Iowa caucusgoers —65 percent—made up their minds before January. The majority of those—66 percent—voted for President Trump.
Those who committed themselves to a candidate later in the race went for Ms. Haley by 32 percent, and Mr. DeSantis by 29 percent.
Of those who made up their mind “in the last few days”—only 20 percent of caucusgoers—31 percent backed Mr. DeSantis and 29 percent chose Ms. Haley.
