The future is electric, according to the iconic Big Three auto manufacturers.
By 2030, Ford expects half of its global sales to be electric vehicles (EVs), and General Motors says it’s committed to “an all-electric future.”
Stellantis, previously known as Fiat Chrysler, states that by the end of this decade, EVs will account for 100 percent of its European sales and 50 percent of its sales in the United States.
The EPA stated that by 2032, the industry-wide average target for light-duty fleet vehicles (passenger cars) is 85 grams per mile of carbon dioxide (CO2)—a 50 percent reduction from the existing standards for 2026.
To accomplish that goal, the EPA found that internal combustion engine vehicles must decrease from 84 percent of light-duty vehicles on the road today to 29 percent in 2032; hybrid and plug-in hybrids need to increase from 9.1 percent to 16 percent; and EVs would need to surge from 6.9 percent market penetration to 56 percent of vehicles on the road by 2032.
That puts China at the center of the United States’ net zero revolution.
“China dominates production at every stage of the EV battery supply chain, with the exception of the mining of metals needed to make cathode materials,” stated the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental agency. It currently consists of 31 member countries, 13 associate countries, and five accession countries.
While the United States is “currently the world’s biggest producer of both oil and gas,” it doesn’t have significant reserves of vital renewable energy minerals like cobalt and graphite, according to the IEA.
Conversely, China has “relatively small reserves of oil and gas” but “dominates production of REEs [rare earth elements], accounting for 60 percent of global output, and is also a big producer of iron ore, lithium and copper,” the IEA states.
“The net zero energy transition makes us incredibly reliant on China. For everything,” Mr. Johnston told The Epoch Times.
“All these governments around the world are creating the same demand for these same products. And that’s not how markets are supposed to function, with government-created demand. Markets are supposed to supply demand that arises organically; that isn’t a product of government policy.
“Were all these policies to disappear, there would be some demand for it, sure—people use solar panels in Florida, California, or Arizona—but it would be far less.
Mr. Johnston said countries relying on China to supply their net zero needs are undercutting their economic stability.
“We have these countries worldwide saying they must pursue net zero policies. But they can’t all be winners in the manufacturing competition to supply these net zero products. And China has a huge, huge advantage. And there’s no indication that those advantages could be competed away.”
China is currently responsible for 60 percent of rare earth elements, according to the IEA.
The Democratic Republic of Congo supplies 70 percent of cobalt, Australia and Chile account for 55 percent and 25 percent, respectively, of mined lithium, while 40 percent of nickel comes from Indonesia.
However, regardless of where it’s mined, China is responsible for refining and processing most of this material.
“Processing of these minerals is also highly concentrated, with China being responsible for the refining of 90 percent of REEs and 60-70 percent of lithium and cobalt,” IEA states.
White House Plan
The Biden administration has acknowledged that America’s reliance on China is problematic, especially regarding EVs and the materials necessary to make them. On May 14, the White House released President Joe Biden’s plan to mitigate China’s dominance.“China’s forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft have contributed to its control of 70, 80, and even 90 percent of global production for the critical inputs necessary for our technologies, infrastructure, energy, and health care—creating unacceptable risks to America’s supply chains and economic security,” the White House fact sheet stated.
“Furthermore, these same non-market policies and practices contribute to China’s growing overcapacity and export surges that threaten to significantly harm American workers, businesses, and communities.”
To combat China’s dominance, President Biden has launched a progressive set of tariffs on Chinese imports, starting on Aug. 1. The tariff rate on lithium-ion EV batteries and battery parts will increase from 7.5 percent to 25 percent, and the tariff rate on “certain other critical minerals” will increase from zero to 25 percent. In 2026, the tariff rate on permanent magnets and natural graphite will increase from zero to 25 percent.
Concurrently, the Biden administration is looking to build a “sufficient domestic industrial base” for batteries “to improve U.S. and global resiliency in these supply chains.”
The White House said it has “invested nearly $20 billion in grants and loans to expand domestic production capacity of advanced batteries and battery materials.”
“Concentration of critical minerals mining and refining capacity in China leaves our supply chains vulnerable and our national security and clean energy goals at risk.”
But, establishing new supply chains isn’t easily accomplished, according to the IEA.
“The industries and infrastructure that underpin the world’s existing energy supply chains took decades to develop—fossil and clean technologies alike. Building a new factory, mine, road or pipeline takes time, as does expanding production from existing factories and facilities.”
Additionally, some of the longest lead times for clean energy systems belong to mining the necessary raw material, which in some cases can take more than two decades.
For China, that equates to a significant advantage.
“It’s been part of China’s economic policy for at least two decades to create and serve a world market with renewable power,” Mr. Johnston said.
“China is not a democracy; it’s a communist dictatorship, so they can pursue what they think is in their best interests.”
National Security Concerns
U.S. national security experts, led by retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. James Marks, wrote to President Biden earlier in the year, warning of the consequences of the EPA’s tailpipe emissions rule.“This trajectory will only position the U.S. to become more reliant on China for critical minerals and manufacturing that are necessary for the rapid expansion of EV markets this administration envisions.
Mr. Marks said a major concern is the reliance on China’s “goodwill” to export the minerals and goods to the United States.
“This will undoubtedly open the U.S. up to economic manipulations by China, identical to what Russia is doing with Ukrainian grain exports, and a major threat to our national security. We do not believe now is the time for us to make ourselves vulnerable to such easy political pressures,” the letter states.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee has also published its opposition to the Biden administration’s push for EVs.
“President Biden and Democrats are leading a radical rush-to-green agenda that takes away people’s vehicle choice and forces Americans to drive electric vehicles,” the committee stated.
“Electric vehicles are unaffordable and unrealistic for many Americans and a reliance on EVs cedes U.S. leadership to the Chinese Communist Party.”
President Biden said on May 14 that he wasn’t “going to let China flood our market, making it impossible for American … auto manufacturers to compete fairly.
“I’m determined that the future of electric vehicles will be made in America by union workers. Period. And we’ll do it by following international trade laws to do it.”
President Biden pledged that Americans will still be able to buy whichever car they prefer, “whether it’s gas, electric, or hybrid.”
Mr Johnston says a significant concern with the EPA emissions rule and the net zero goals is the way they’re being pushed through.
“There’s been enormous damage done to the rule of law in the name of this war on climate change. We haven’t passed new laws in this country that mandate various aspects of the net zero policy—such as the enormous increase in electric vehicles and the reductions in CO2 emissions from various sources,” he said.
“That’s been done through the administrative state without legislative support.”
Meanwhile, Mr. Johnston said that China is opening new coal power plants every week while simultaneously giving lip service to the renewable energy transition.
“It absolutely perfectly serves its interests to do those two things.”
“This EV mandate is not the result of an open Congressional debate,” the group, EVVoiceOftheCutomer, stated in March.
“This is unelected Washington bureaucrats dictating what kind of vehicles Americans can buy.”
The group pointed out that demand for EVs is lacking, and those vehicles are “stacking up on our lots” despite significant tax credits and incentives.
