Thanks to redrawn congressional districts in southern Alabama, two sitting congressmen will be running against each other in a race that could effectively end one man’s time on Capitol Hill.
In a Super Tuesday contest, voters in Alabama’s new 1st Congressional District will vote to choose whether they support Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) or Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) in a Republican primary contest.
Redistricting Southern Alabama
After a lengthy process involving a 2023 Supreme Court ruling—the case of Allen v. Milligan—the Yellowhammer State was forced to redraw its congressional map in order to grant black Alabamans greater opportunities to represent their state in Congress. In October 2023, the map was finalized setting up a clash between Mr. Moore, from Enterprise, Alabama, and Mr. Carl, from Mobile.Previously, the 1st District wrapped around greater Mobile and into the counties surrounding it. The 2nd District encompasses much of southeastern Alabama and much of greater Montgomery, Alabama.
In an interview, neither Mr. Moore nor Mr. Carl said they supported the redistricting.
“I don’t think the courts need to be drawing districts,” Mr. Moore told The Epoch Times. “It just seems to me like that this was certainly not the will of the American people, at least the people of Alabama.”
“I’m really disappointed,” Mr. Carl told The Epoch Times. “This whole scenario is absolutely ridiculous as these liberal judges redrew the district lines based on race. We’ve worked so hard to get away from race as a marker in how we make our decisions.”
Along with recreating the 1st District, the 2023 redistricting process completely remade the 2nd District, too. Now, the district is directly north of the 1st District, includes part of Mobile County, Alabama, and covers much of the so-called Black Belt of Alabama as well as Montgomery County, Alabama.
Also on March 5, voters in the 2nd district will consider a slew of choices for both the Democratic and Republican parties. On the Democratic side, 11 candidates are running. On the Republican side, eight are running.
In an interview with The Epoch Times, Jeff Elrod, the director of elections at the Alabama Secretary of State, said for any one of those candidates to win the primary contest outright, they will need to secure more than 50 percent of the vote.
Mr. Elrod said it’s unlikely any single candidate will capture that much of the vote on Super Tuesday, so the state’s election laws call for a run-off election between the two candidates that get the most significant percentage of the vote on March 5. That contest would be set for April 16.
In an interview, Thomas Shaw, an associate professor at the University of Southern Alabama’s Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice, said he isn’t sure if the new 2nd District will achieve its goal of electing a black candidate and may not even send a Democrat to Congress in November.
State of the Race
Both Mr. Carl and Mr. Moore were elected to their respective seats in 2020 and were reelected in 2022. Both men have backgrounds in politics. Mr. Carl served on the Mobile County Commission. Mr. Moore was a member of Alabama’s House of Representatives. Mr. Moore unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2018 ahead of his 2020 election.Mr. Moore is a member of the hardline right-wing House Freedom Caucus.
The 1st District redraw had the effect of making an already safely Republican district even more conservative. The rhetorical battle between the two Congressmen has been focused on who is the true Make America Great Again Republican, Mr. Shaw said.
Mr. Moore said the two had a cordial relationship in Congress, but their relationship has become “strained” as the Carl campaign began to use attack ads against him.
Mr. Moore said he believes Mr. Carl cannot run to his right, nor can he attack his record in Congress, so he has to launch a personal attack.
Mr. Shaw said Mr. Carl has been more of a pragmatic Republican who’s willing to work across the aisle and who wasn’t afraid to “bring home the bacon” to his district. By comparison, Mr. Moore is more idealistic.
“Folks in Alabama have really connected with our message because they understand I am a conservative who actually gets things done,” Mr. Carl said. “I don’t just talk about it. I actually get things done. I think that’s important.”
There have been few polls conducted focusing on the 1st District race. The most recent one, conducted by Auburn University at Montgomery’s Department of Political Science and Public Administration, in partnership with the Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia, found 43 percent of respondents plan on voting for Mr. Carl and 35 percent plan on voting for Moore. However, a large portion of respondents, 22 percent, remain undecided ahead of the vote. The poll was conducted on Feb. 27.
In an interview, David Hughes, associate professor of political science at AUM and director of the AUM Poll, said that is a statistically significant advantage for Mr. Carl. While there is still a large percentage of undecided voters, Mr. Hughes said it’s unlikely they will all break in the same direction in the final days of the race.
“It’s Jerry Carl’s election to lose,” Mr. Hughes told The Epoch Times.
In terms of fundraising, Mr. Carl has a decided advantage.
From the beginning of 2023 through Feb. 14, Mr. Carl’s principal campaign committee, Jerry Carl For Congress, has raised nearly $2 million. His joint fundraising committee, the Jerry Carl Victory Committee, raised more than $639,000 in 2023, according to Federal Election Commission records.
Outside Interest
As a de facto House election—Democratic candidate Tom Holmes faces long odds of winning in November—the race is drawing significant outside interest.In February, Conservative for American Excellence, a group bankrolled by billionaire Republican mega-donors Ken Griffin and Warren Stephens, began to attack Mr. Moore. At the same time, School Freedom Fund—a group tied to the conservative activist group Club For Growth—has started to attack Mr. Carl.
In a statement provided to The Epoch Times, School Freedom Fund President David McIntosh said it is backing Mr. Moore because he “consistently supported school freedom and parent rights, and he is the only true America first candidate who will take on the radical left with President Trump.
However, the Club For Growth itself has not formally endorsed Mr. Moore. He did receive their endorsement in his 2022 reelection bid.
Mr. Moore said he initially asked Club for Growth to stay out of the race because the group was at odds with former President Donald Trump, but the president and the group have been working together lately.
“I’m glad we’re all on the same team now,” Mr. Moore said.
“I think it’s shameful he’s going to take that dark money from inside these Washington groups,” Mr. Carl said. “He said he wouldn’t take any money or support from them. And obviously, he’s doing it. But it just shows how much of Washington he’s become. He’s all talk, no action.”
As for his fundraising and endorsements, Mr. Carl said he’s proud to see local support and local endorsements.
One of Mr. Carl’s biggest local endorsers is Coastal 150. In an interview, Wiley Blankenship, the group’s executive director, said it is a non-partisan business group that works to ensure Alabama’s Gulf Coast’s priorities are represented in politics.
Mr. Blankenship said his group, as well as many other local law enforcement and political figures, back Mr. Carl because they know he delivers the results they need. Moreover, Mr. Blankenship said Mr. Carl is knowledgeable of the unique industries in the Gulf Coast region and cares about his constituents more than making political statements.
“He has provided for the constituents … and their communities,” Mr. Blankenship said. “That’s the difference.”
If he were to win, Mr. Carl said it would send a national message that American voters don’t want to see outside money flowing in to try to swing elections.
Mr. Shaw said he wasn’t sure about the impact of outside money on the race. However, he noted Alabamans carry a deep-seated resentment toward “carpetbaggers” from outside the state who wish to interfere in their state.
Moreover, Mr. Shaw said he believes the outside spending shows just how slim the majority is in Washington.
Final Appeals
Heading into Super Tuesday, both candidates said they view the race as very competitive, and they are expecting a solid turnout because President Trump will be on the ballot as well. Mr. Shaw agreed, saying there won’t be as many voters as in a presidential election, but there will be decidedly elevated interest in the 1st District race.For most of the campaign, Mr. Shaw said, the candidates have been focused on national issues like immigration and loyalty to President Trump. However, in the past few weeks, attention shifted to the Interstate 10 Mobile Bay bridge reconstruction project. The current Jubilee Parkway bridge over the bay was built in 1978.
Mr. Moore, who hasn’t talked much about bringing money back to his district so far in the race, is leaning in on the bridge project and winning federal funding for it, Mr. Shaw said. That could give him an edge with undecided voters near Mobile.
Mr. Hughes said his polling shows the more conservative voters in rural Alabama will likely back Mr. Moore, but the more affluent and relatively moderate electorate near Mobile will break for Mr. Carl.
In short, Mr. Moore is at a considerable disadvantage because more of the new 1st District is made up of Mr. Carl’s old constituency. Voters know Mr. Carl, but they don’t know Mr. Moore.
“This was always going to be an uphill slog for Barry Moore, just given the reality that he didn’t get to bring as many of his constituents into this new district that Mr. Carl got to,” Mr. Hughes said.
Mr. Moore plans on holding a series of rallies with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on March 2 in the district to highlight his commitment to the Freedom Caucus and the MAGA movement.
Mr. Moore told The Epoch Times he will not be in the district on Tuesday night. He will vote in the morning, then head back to Washington to participate in votes in the House.
If Mr. Moore wins, he said he will go about introducing himself to the district and making amends with those who opposed him in the 2024 run. If he loses, he said he'll go fishing.
“This is a calling for me,” Mr. Moore said. “It’s a miracle that I’m here. If the Lord sees it fit to send me back, I'll go run my business and do something in the meantime until he opens another door.”
Mr. Carl is planning on holding an election night watch party at the TimberCreek Golf Club in Daphne, Alabama. He predicted he would win the race.
“Folks in Alabama want someone to represent them that actually gets things done,” Mr. Carl said. “After I win, I'll continue getting things done.”
“I’m not going to lose.”
