Forecaster: Redistricting Aids GOP, but Democrats Still Favored If Environment Holds

Sabato’s Kyle Kondik shifted five ratings to the GOP but said Democrats remain favored because of ‘economic pessimism’ and Trump’s low approval rating.

President Donald Trump delivers his first State of the Union address during his second presidential term, in the House Chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 24, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

A leading election forecaster shifted five House races toward Republicans on Monday following Tennessee’s newly redrawn congressional map and a Virginia Supreme Court ruling this past week blocking a Democratic-led mid-decade redraw.

But, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik said Democrats remain favored to win the chamber in November because Republicans “face a number of big-picture headaches as [President Donald] Trump’s approval rating has dipped a bit under 40% and economic pessimism reigns.”