Federal Agency Issues Geomagnetic Storm Watch

The Space Weather Prediction Center issued a geomagnetic storm watch for Jan. 22 and Jan. 23, 2024. (NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center)

An advisory for a geomagnetic storm was issued for Monday and Tuesday by a federal agency after an eruption on the surface of the sun was detected on Sunday morning.

The Space Weather Prediction Center, a subdivision of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), warned about the eruption—known as a coronal mass ejection—on Sunday.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, and on its website, the agency said that the “general public does not need to be concerned” about the solar flare, but it added that the northern lights, known as the aurora borealis, could be visible in a number of states.

The solar flare, it said, “was observed lifting off the sun ... and is expected to cause up to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming” in the early part of this week. “Watches of this level are not uncommon,” it said.

A forecast map provided by Space Weather Prediction Center reveals that the northern lights may be seen in Alaska, some northern U.S. states like Montana, Idaho, the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota on Monday. Much of Canada may see the atmospheric phenomenon, too.

“The aurora is not visible during daylight hours. The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a [sic] 1,000 kilometers [600 miles] away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right,” the agency said.

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According to the Space Weather Prediction Center, a geomagnetic storm represents a disturbance in the Earth’s magnetosphere and takes place when the energy caused by solar wind impacts the area around the planet. Generally, they occur several days after an eruption on the surface of the sun.

The solar flare occurred as the sun was approaching the peak of its current cycle, which started several years ago, says NOAA’s website in a recent article.

“As we approach the peak of Solar Cycle 25, we should expect to see more sunspots, each of which is a region of intense magnetic activity capable of producing solar flares and coronal mass ejections, or CMEs,” NOAA says. “This period of elevated activity can last up to several years, with impactful space weather events possible in 2024.”

G2 storms are the second-lowest category, but these storms can sometimes interfere with satellites and certain types of electronics. More severe storms can impact aircraft communications.

For example, according to the agency, “a strong solar flare briefly interrupted aircraft communications on December 14, 2023.”

There have been warnings that exceptionally strong solar flares may cause mass disruptions on Earth. Some researchers say that such an event could upend modern human civilization as it would cause worldwide chaos due to severe impacts on electronics, telecommunications, and power grids across the globe.

“Extreme solar storms could have huge impacts on Earth. Such super storms could permanently damage the transformers in our electricity grids, resulting in huge and widespread blackouts lasting months,” Tim Heaton, professor of applied statistics in the School of Mathematics at the University of Leeds, told the Independent last year.

“They could also result in permanent damage to the satellites that we all rely on for navigation and telecommunication, leaving them unusable. They would also create severe radiation risks to astronauts.”

Researchers found that a significant solar storm hit the Earth about 14,300 years ago after evaluating evidence of a significant increase in radiocarbon on tree rings found in the French Alps. They determined that the increase was caused by a massive solar flare.

In 1859, the so-called Carrington Event solar storm caused significant disruption to society by destroying telegraph machines and other early electronic equipment, according to historians. Some have speculated that such an event would cause widespread worldwide disruptions, blackouts, and major damage to power grids.