Elections Modeler Changes Arizona Senate, Key House Race Ratings to ‘Leans Democrat’

Forecaster says court ruling and ballot measure aids Democrats in battleground state’s Senate and House races, but notes no change in Trump-Biden ‘Toss-Up.’

Thousands of protesters march around the Arizona Capitol after the Supreme Court decision to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion decision on June 24, 2022, in Phoenix. The Supreme Court on Friday stripped away women’s constitutional protections for abortion, a fundamental and deeply personal change for Americans' lives after nearly a half-century under Roe v. Wade. The court’s overturning of the landmark court ruling is likely to lead to abortion bans in roughly half the states. AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Arizona Democrats, with a timely assist from the state’s Supreme Court, have successfully positioned abortion to be a top 2024 campaign issue, a strategy they hope will benefit party candidates in close races in this and other battleground states nationwide.

According to the latest algorithmic modeling posted by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, that gambit may be paying off.