Democrats Still Favored to Win House After Florida Map Changes—GOP Redistricting Could Tilt Odds

Sabato’s Crystal Ball updates leave Democrats with a 213-207 House edge after Florida’s map changes, but further GOP pickups could tilt the odds.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) holds a news conference in Washington on March 19, 2026. Jeffries was critical of President Donald Trump's attack on Iran and said the billions of dollars being spent on the fight in the Middle East would be better spent on social welfare programs and making life more affordable for Americans. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Democrats remain narrowly favored to win the House majority in November despite Florida Republicans’ newly enacted congressional map, according to a leading nonpartisan election forecaster—though further redistricting moves in states like Tennessee, South Carolina, and Louisiana could erase that edge.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, updated 17 House race ratings this week, with nine changes tied to Florida’s new map and eight elsewhere across Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The updates leave the overall House battlefield at 213 districts rated Safe, Likely or Leans Democratic; 207 rated Safe, Likely or Leans Republican; and 15 rated Toss-ups.