Democrats Bet on Florida as Unlikely Key to Beating Trump

Twenty-five years of consistent statewide election losses and recent polling data are all working against them.

A protester holds a sign as she demonstrates in Miami after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization abortion case, overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion decision, on June 24, 2022. Marco Bello/Reuters

Jeb Bush’s 1998 gubernatorial win put a Republican in Florida’s governor’s mansion for the first time since 1991, but it also marked the beginning of a trend that would shape the state’s politics for the next 25 years.

Prior to the late 1990s, the Democratic Party had a political stronghold in Florida. Between 1877 and 1967, every Florida governor but one—the Prohibition Party’s Sidney Johnston Catts—was a Democrat.