Defense Bill Mandates Report on Possibility of War With China in 2030

The report would examine the ‘range of consequences of war with [China]’ in the year 2030, and outline likely avenues of attack.

Shenyang J-15 fighter jets on China's then-sole operational aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, during a drill at sea on April 24, 2018. AFP via Getty Images

The United States’ annual defense spending bill mandates several reports and actions aimed at improving the nation’s strategic posture in the event of a war with China.

The $886 billion National Defense Authorization Act contains hundreds of references to communist China and its military, and lays out pathways to begin strengthening U.S. defenses in the event of a military conflict with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

The House of Representatives on Dec. 14 approved the compromise version of the fiscal 2024 defense policy bill on a vote of 310–118, a day after the Senate passed it 87-13, sending the measure—which includes funding for Ukraine and annual pay raises for troops—to the White House for President Joe Biden to sign into law.

The provision would direct the Department of Defense (DoD) to analyze nearly every facet of the competition with China—from vying for diplomatic influence abroad to defending U.S. aircraft in the Pacific to barring the use of taxpayer dollars to hire Chinese tutoring services.

Examine ‘Range of Consequences’

Most notable among those reports is an assessment of the geopolitical and economic fallout likely to stem from a hypothetical war between the United States and China in 2030.

The report would examine the “range of consequences of war with [China]” in the year 2030, and outline likely avenues of attack, cyber actions, and threats to infrastructure, as well as the global economic consequences of such a war.

It would also seek to project calculated loss of life on both sides, as well as “impacts on the civilian populations of Japan, Taiwan, Australia, and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region.”

The National Defense Authorization Act would also mandate several related research reports, analyses, and congressional briefings on related matters.

Topics include the risks and implications of a “sustained military blockade” of Taiwan by the CCP, and an outline of the regime’s ability to target U.S. military aircraft operating in the Indo-Pacific.

One classified survey is intended to identify the United States’ key operating locations within the First, Second, and Third Island Chains “that may be used to respond militarily to aggression by [China]” and that aren’t “sufficiently capable of mitigating damage to aircraft of the United States Armed Forces in the event of a missile, aerial drone, or other form of attack by [China].”

The bill would also seek to uncover and analyze the CCP’s investments in critical infrastructure worldwide, including ports and minerals, the means by which the regime could threaten global supply chains, and the role of the CCP in fostering fentanyl trafficking.

Access to Critical Resources Allowed

Although fears of a catastrophic confrontation with the CCP have risen in recent years, the Biden administration has thus far shied away from decoupling the U.S. and Chinese economies in preparation for such an eventuality.

Congress appears to be taking a similar approach with the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, including several amendments that would prohibit small engagements with the Chinese economy while continuing to allow the regime access to critical resources.

One amendment would prohibit the Pentagon from funding television and movie projects if there’s evidence that the project might have “complied or is likely to comply” with CCP censors’ demands.

Another would ban Pentagon funding of the use of “online tutoring services” owned or operated by CCP-affiliated entities.

Meanwhile, however, Congress appears to have done away with proposed amendments that would prevent the flow of strategic oil from the United States to China.

Notably, both the House and Senate versions of the bill would have required the Secretary of Energy to prohibit the export of petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to China.

Both of those amendments are conspicuously absent from the final version of the bill, however, despite being overwhelmingly supported by both parties earlier in the year.

President Biden has sold more than half of the nation’s strategic reserves of oil since taking office, bringing the nation’s reserves to a 40-year low.