American Oil Exports to Canada Fall 28 Percent, as Trade Deal Hangs in Balance

The two nations are yet to agree on a trade deal.

An oil pump jack in a field near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, on July 21, 2014. Reuters/Todd Korol/File Photo

The crude oil trade between the United States and Canada has gone down in recent months, with U.S. exports to Canada declining by about 28 percent in the combined March–April period from the same time last year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a July 30 report.

In March, the United States exported 9.22 million barrels of oil to Canada, down by 29 percent from the 13.01 million barrels a year ago, according to data from EIA.

In April, U.S. exports were 7.3 million barrels, down 26.5 percent from 9.94 million barrels in April last year.

The United States exported 40.25 million barrels of oil to Canada in the January–April period this year, down 11.77 percent from 45.62 million barrels exported during the same period in 2024.

The report does not clarify the reason for the fall in U.S. oil exports.

One reason could be higher oil output in Canada. In March 2025, Canada’s crude oil output came in at 5.04 million barrels per day, up from 4.83 million barrels in March last year.

That, combined with the fact that Canadian oil tends to trade at a discount to U.S. oil, could have caused Canada to import less oil from the United States.

Meanwhile, U.S. imports of Canadian oil have also declined, although not as drastically as exports. They fell by about 5 percent in the combined March–April period from a year ago, according to the EIA report.

The decline in U.S. imports coincided with President Donald Trump’s announcement on Jan. 31 that he may impose a 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil. The tariffs came into effect in March.

Oil imports from Canada have been lower every single month since February on an annual basis, according to EIA data. So far this year, imports are down by 3 percent from 2024.

Despite the decline, the EIA does not foresee any major shift in U.S. imports of Canadian oil.

“Although we expect any future changes to tariff policy could also affect cross-border energy trade volumes, the United States is likely to remain the preferred destination for Canada’s crude oil given the existing pipeline infrastructure connecting the two markets,” it said in the report.

“Relatively complex U.S. petroleum refineries tend to prefer heavy (dense) crude oils, such as those produced in Canada.”

The value of overall energy trade between the two countries, including oil and other commodities, totaled $154 billion in 2024, out of which $124 billion was accounted for by U.S. energy imports from Canada.

Tariff Impact, Trade Deal

In an interview with The Epoch Times in March, Richard Masson, executive fellow at the University of Calgary School of Public Policy in Canada, said that the Trump administration’s 10 percent tariffs on Canadian oil would not have much of an effect.

The tariff adds roughly $6 to a barrel of oil, which he suggested was not enough to alter export-import patterns in any significant way.

“The oil we send is getting to the U.S. because they want it and they need it,” Masson said. “The higher price is not going to change that. We don’t have lots of other places to sell it. They don’t have any alternative sources of supply.”

Meanwhile, the trade conflict between the United States and Canada remains unresolved, creating further uncertainty regarding tariffs and other measures.

Speaking to reporters on July 25, Trump suggested the United States may not reach a trade deal with Canada.

“We haven’t really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where they’ll just pay tariffs. It’s not really a negotiation,” he said.

On July 10, Trump sent a letter to Canada warning that a tariff rate of 35 percent would be charged on all Canadian imports not covered by the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement from Aug. 1.

Trump also recently suggested that a trade deal with Canada could be tough to negotiate after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on July 30 that Ottawa planned to recognize Palestinian statehood in September.

“Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them,” Trump wrote in a July 31 Truth Social post.

Lee Harding contributed to this report.