Republicans gained four House seats in New York in 2022, a surprising splash of red in a presumed deep blue state that helped the GOP notch its narrow chamber edge and salvaged an otherwise disappointing midterm performance by the party.
If Republicans are to retain or expand their House majority in 2024, defending those New York seats is a top national GOP priority, especially with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) making winning them back a rallying cry.
Six freshman New York GOP House representatives are seeking re-election in Congressional districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020. Their re-election campaigns are among seven 2024 New York House races Cook Political Report rates as either “toss-ups” or “lean Democratic.”
Another potential hurdle: If the appeal of a New York Appellate Court’s June ruling fails, the 2022 Congressional map that saw Republicans chip Democrats’ 19-8 2020 House bulge into a 15-11 2022 advantage will be repealed and a new map in place for 2024.
If the ruling is upheld, New York’s Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) will get a second crack at re-crafting the state’s 26 Congressional districts, although whatever it sends to the state’s Democrat-dominated General Assembly can be amended en route to the governor’s desk.
If the Hoffman appeal is rejected, some analysts say how the IRC drafts the map and how lawmakers tweak it, could handicap the 2024 re-election prospects for at least two, and perhaps as many as six, sitting New York Republican Congressional reps.
Battlegrounds: Long Island, Hudson Valley
Of the seven New York Congressional districts rated as “toss-ups” or with slight partisan tilts where independent and non-affiliated voters determine elections, three are on Long Island and three are in the Hudson Valley. The other, Congressional District 22 (CD 22), is a Syracuse-area district in central New York.Of course, the incumbent most unlikely to be re-elected in New York, if not the nation, is Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who faces multiple state and federal charges for wire fraud, money laundering, and identity theft related to his 2022 campaign.
In fact, his fellow five New York Republican freshmen co-sponsored a resolution to expel him from Congress that failed last week. There are already 21 candidates—including nine Republicans—seeking his seat.
And the filing deadline for the June 25 primary isn’t until April.
Three Hudson Valley incumbents face challenging demographics in reclaiming their seats in 2024. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) won his CD 17 district by less than 1 percent, and Rep. Marc Molinaro won his CD 19 race by about 1.5 percent, while Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.)—the only Democrat among the seven vulnerable incumbents—won his CD 18 race by 1.3 percent.
Mr. Molinaro and, particularly, Mr. Lawler, both played prominent roles in chastising their fellow Republicans during the three weeks they dithered away trying to elect a House Speaker.
Mr. Lawler is one of four New York congressional Republicans who voted against Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) for speaker. Mr. Molinaro voted twice for Jordan before casting a ballot for former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.). All ultimately voted for current Speaker Mike Williams (R-La.).
While all could see their districts reshaped if Republicans lose their Hoffman appeal, pundits and prognosticators also note that GOP candidates not only benefitted from the special master-drawn 2022 congressional maps but from Mr. Zeldin’s gubernatorial campaign against Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Below is a breakdown of the seven New York Congressional districts projected to be key battleground elections in determining which party controls the House beginning in January 2025.
CD 1: Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY)
First-time candidate and Naval Academy graduate Mr. LaLota secured more than 55 percent of the 2022 vote to retain the seat held for four terms by Mr. Zeldin, who opted not to run for reelection in the House to launch a bid for governor.CD 1 spans the east end of Long Island’s North Shore. It has been a swing battleground since the 1990s and Republican-leaning since the 2010s, although former President Barack Obama won the district twice.
In 2020, 55.9 percent of its registered voters were Republicans, but President Joe Biden won it by 0.2 percent. Mr. LaLota’s 2022 results outperformed the party’s 2020 CD 1 results by 12 percent.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Elections Daily rate the outcome of the 2024 CD 1 race as “likely Republican.” Inside Elections rates the district as “Lean Republican.”
As of Nov. 2, Mr. LaLota had $1 million in campaign funds in the bank and no primary challenger.
At least five Democrats have filed to vie for their party’s nod to take on Mr. LaLota. Among them are former state Sen. Jim Gaughran, chemist and CD 1 2020 primary candidate Nancy Goroff, and attorney and former administrative law judge Craig Herskowitz.
CD 3: Rep. George Santos (R-NY)
Mr. Santos’ odds of being on the June 25 primary ballots are a sliver slim, and his chances of advancing to November are virtually nil.As of Nov. 2, at least nine Republicans had filed to run for Mr. Santos’ seat representing the Long Island North Shore district he flipped by defeating Democrat Robert Zimmerman in 2022 by more than 7.5 percent—while Mr. Biden won the district by 8.2 percent—to succeed the retiring two-term Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).
Among party rivals lining up to vie for Santos’ seat are former J.P. Morgan vice president and U.S. Air Force veteran Kellen Curry; Bayside small business owner and Israeli Defense Forces veteran Daniel Norber; attorney and Air Force veteran Gregory Hach; former Special Operations Command Central strategic director Thomas Ludwig; businessman and retired NYPD detective Mike Sapraicone; financial executive Jim Toes; and Dr. Harvey Manes.
At least nine Democrats have also filed to run for New York’s CD 3, including the newly un-retired Mr. Suozzi, who will take on former state Sen. Anna Kaplan, Nassau County legislator and CD 3 2022 candidate Joshua Lafazan, investment banker Scott Livingston, nonprofit executive Zak Malamed, and St. John’s University Law School professor Will Murphy, among others.
The Cook Political Report and Elections Daily both rate CD 3 as “Solid Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball gives it a “Safe Republican” classification. Inside Elections rates race results as “Likely Republican.”
All this, however, can change if Republicans’ Hoffman appeal fails and CD 3’s district lines are marginally altered to encompass parts of neighboring Democrat-dominant districts.
CD 4: Rep. Anthony Esposito (R-NY)
A retired New York City Police Department detective and former Hempstead Town Council member, Mr. Esposito, defeated fellow Hempstead Town Council member Laura Gillen by 3.6 percent, less than 10,000 votes, in November 2022.He will likely need to do so again in 2024 because Ms. Gillen is the heavy favorite to defeat at least four other party rivals in the Democratic CD 4 primary for a rematch.
Mr. Esposito flipped a long-held Democrat seat won in 2020 by Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.), who opted not to run in 2022, and helped by Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.) for nine terms.
Mr. Biden won the Long Island South Shore Nassau County district by 14.6 percent in 2020, with Mr. Esposito’s 2022 results outperforming the party’s 2020 CD 4 results by 18.3 percent.
Despite Democrats’ significant registered voter advantage, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales all rate CD 4 as a “toss-up.”
As of Nov. 3, Mr. Esposito does not have a primary challenger, and his campaign had $1.113 million in the bank. Ms. Gillen’s campaign reported to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) nearly $400,000 in cash on hand as of Sept. 30.
In addition to Ms. Gillen, at least four other Democrats are seeking the CD 4 seat. Among them is investment company owner Gian Jones and former Nassau/Suffolk counties development and community education director Patricia Maher, a Nassau County Democratic Committee mainstay and perennial candidate.
CD 17: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY)
Mr. Lawler served as advisor to Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino when he was state Republican Party chair and one term in the state Assembly before pulling off, perhaps, the biggest Congressional upset of 2022 when he unseated House DCCC chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) by 1,820 votes—less than 1 percent.Defeating the first-term Republican in 2024 is a top priority for the DCCC, Democrats’ House Majority PAC, and New York’s state Democratic committee.
Mr. Lawler does not have a primary challenger as yet, and his campaign reported more than $2 million in cash on hand to the FEC on Sept. 30.
Two prominent Democrats are running for his CD 17 seat: former U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) and Katonah-Lewisboro School Board member Liz Gereghty, who is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s sister, will vie in the primary to take on the GOP incumbent in November.
Mr. Biden won CD 17 by 10 percent in 2020. Despite the Cook Partisan Voter Index documenting that Democrats have a D+2 edge in CD 17 voter registration, Cook, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2024 race as a “toss-up.”
The only publicly posted polling thus far was a May 4-7 survey of 300 likely voters by EMC Research and End Citizens United/Let America Vote Action Fund in which Mr. Lawler edged Mr. Jones 50 to 48 percent.
CD 17 spans both sides of the river in the Lower Hudson Valley. It includes all of Rockland and Putnam counties, northern Westchester County, and parts of southern Dutchess County. It is among districts that could be significantly changed should Republicans lose their Hoffman appeal.
CD 18: Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY)
Mr. Ryan is the only incumbent Democrat among the seven New York Congressional freshmen seeking re-election in a “toss-up” or competitive district.A West Point graduate and Iraq war combat veteran, Mr. Ryan served four years as Ulster County Executive before defeating Dutchess County Executive Mark Molinaro in an August 2022 CD 19 special election on the same day he won the newly configured CD 18 Democratic primary.
Mr. Molinaro went on to win CD 19 in November 2022 while Mr. Ryan edged Republican Colin Schmitt by 1.3 percent in a purple district that rating services say “leans Democrat” but has a penchant for electing Republicans.
As of Nov. 3, Mr. Ryan had at least one challenger in the CD 18 Democratic primary—Alexander Saulino, a camera operator from Poughkeepsie. His campaign’s Sept. 30 FEC filing showed $1.678 million in its kitty while no FEC data was available for Mr. Saulino’s campaign.
Two Republicans have filed to run for CD 18: Realtor Lovelynn Gwinn and retired New York City Police deputy inspector and Brooklyn precinct commander Alison Esposito, an Orange County native who ran in 2022 as Mr. Zeldin’s lieutenant governor candidate.
CD 19: Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY)
Like CDs 17 and 18, this is a Hudson Valley district. But it also stretches across the valley from the Connecticut state line west over the Catskills to Cayuga Lake.Mr. Molinaro served as Dutchess County executive from 2011-2017 and was the Republican Party’s 2018 gubernatorial candidate. While losing the August 2022 CD 18 special election to Mr. Ryan, he won the GOP nomination for CD 19 the same day.
Mr. Molinaro defeated Democrat John Riley, an attorney who has worked on former Rep. Maurice Hinchey’s (D-N.Y.) and former Sen. Al Franken’s (D-Minn.) staffs, by less than 1.6 percent in November 2022.
As of the November 2022 general election, 36 percent of the district’s voters were registered Democrats, 32 percent registered Republicans, and 31 percent were registered with another party or unaffiliated, according to Ballotpedia.
Mr. Biden won what is now CD 19 in 2020 also by 1.6 percent, with Mr. Molinaro’s 2022 results out-performing the party by 14.6 percent in the district, which had a slight Republican tilt before redistricting but is rated “even” now.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates CD 19 as a “toss-up.” Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales gives it a “Tilt Republican” classification.
As of Nov. 3, Mr. Molinaro has $1.35 million in his campaign coffers and no primary challenger. Three Democrats are running for the seat, including 2022 ballot foe Mr. Riley.
CD 22: Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY)
A business owner and former Navy submarine officer, Mr. Williams edged Democrat Francis Conroe, a Naval Academy graduate and former intelligence officer, by 1 percent, less than 2,600 votes, in their 2022 race.Syracuse-centered CD 22 spans Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties and a small part of Oswego County. Mr. Biden won the central New York district by 7.4 percent in 2020 with Mr. Williams outperforming those results by 8.5 percent in 2022.
The 2022 redistricted map actually put Republicans at a disadvantage during the midterms. The former CD 22 had been represented by Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), who had to run for re-election in CD 24.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales all rate CD 22 as a “toss-up.”
As of Nov. 3, Mr. Williams faces no primary challenger and his campaign’s Sept. 30 FEC filing reported $861,000 in the bank. At least five Democrats are running for the seat, including DeWitt Town Councilor and Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood and state Sen. John Mannion (D-Syracuse).
