ANALYSIS: 2024 Election: Speculation Builds for Senate to Flip Red, House to Turn Blue

A view of the U.S. House of Representatives in Washington, on Oct. 25, 2023. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

A year out from the 2024 general election, speculation continues to swirl around the prospect for a reversal on Capitol Hill—the Senate flipping red and the House turning blue—though a number of wild cards suggest everything remains in play.

The 2024 U.S. elections are scheduled for Nov. 5 of next year, when Americans will go to the polls to elect a president and vice president, all 435 seats in the House up for grabs, and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate contested.

The case for the 2024 election resulting in a split congressional decision—where Republicans gain control of the Senate but lose the House—has just gotten a boost from the latest analysis by the Cook Political Report (CPR).

Democrats seem to have a “strong” chance at retaking the five seats they need to wrest back control of the House, per the report.

Partly it’s because of the odds: there are 18 vulnerable Republicans in Biden 2020 districts, compared to five vulnerable Democrats in Trump districts.

Another part of the CPR calculus that raised Democrat chances to flip the House in their favor is the recent speakership fracas.

Speakership in Focus

In the analysis, CPR’s David Wasserman argued that the commotion around the ouster of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and the election of the current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has “supercharged” House Democrats’ confidence that they can flip the five seats they need to retake the lower chamber.

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Their plan, according to Mr. Wasserman, is to persuade “swing voters that ‘dysfunctional’ Republicans can’t be trusted with the keys to power.”

That may be a tall order, especially if memories fade about the speakership drama and if the current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) proves himself to be a competent and stable leader, able to navigate the maze of partisan politics, avoid pitfalls, and get things done.

Newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) takes his oath of office after the House of Representatives held an election in the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Oct. 25, 2023. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

In an interview with C-Span’s Washington Journal, Mr. Wasserman said that Mr. Johnson has been on the conservative side of issues important to Democrats (for instance opposing same-sex marriage and helping provide the rationale to contest the results of the 2020 election).

Mr. Wasserman conceded, however, that it could be difficult for Democrats to make Mr. Johnson’s conservative views central for the 2024 election “given the noise of the presidential cycle,” suggesting that the dynamics of the race for the White House is a wild card of considerable significance for congressional races.

Break With Precedent?

History certainly seems on the side of the status quo (that the House stays red). After all, the House hasn’t flipped during a presidential cycle in over 70 years.

Then there’s the wild card of voter turnout for what is shaping up to be a high-stakes presidential election, which is likely to have down-ballot impacts that in neck-to-neck races could have an outsized effect on the outcome.

Still, Mr. Wasserman argued that Democrats may be successful in flipping at least 5 of the 18 vulnerable Republican-held seats by pushing the narrative that all 18 voted for Mr. Johnson as House Speaker and “offer proof to voters that these Republicans are not the moderates they’ve made themselves out to be.”

“The House majority hasn’t flipped in a presidential cycle since 1952,” Mr. Wasserman said. “Considering there are those 18 Republicans in Biden-won districts and only five Democrats in Trump-won districts, there are competitive seats for them to get there.”

What’s more, 11 of the 18 vulnerable Republicans are in California and New York, states where Democrats underperformed in the midterms. But if voter turnout is high in the high-stakes presidential election, which some analysts say is likely, this could affect down-ballot races and increase the chances that the House tilts blue.

Further, 11 of the 18 are freshmen with “less established political brands,” per the CPR report, suggesting they’re more vulnerable to being ousted by the shifting winds of fickle swing voters.

Also on the speakership change front, Mr. McCarthy was a highly effective fundraiser for House Republicans, helping raise cash for GOP candidates to win the House in the midterms.

Mr. Johnson has less fundraising experience and, according to Mr. Wasserman, “the jury is out on whether he can really step into those shoes that McCarthy has left behind” in terms of raising re-election cash.

House Race Rating Changes

In another apparent tailwind for House Democrats, CPR analysts released five new race changes, of which three are in favor of Democrats and two that favor Republicans.

On the Republican side, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) has moved from “lean R” to a “toss up”; Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) has shifted from “solid R” to “likely R”; and Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wi.) has gone from “likely R” to “lean R.”

On the Democrat side, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) has shifted from “lean D” to a “toss up” and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) has gone from “likely D” to “lean D.”

After all the shifting, CPR’s updated House ratings are as follows: Republicans have 208 seats at least leaning to them, Democrats have 203, and there are 24 tossups.

By contrast, analysts at UVA Center for Politics recently shifted three Democrat-held “toss up” rated seats as going “safe Republican” in North Carolina after the state Supreme Court re-opened the door to a Republican redistricting for 2024.

Specifically, Reps. Kathy Manning (D-N.C.), Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), and Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.) have all shifted to “safe Republican” after legislative Republicans in the state approved a new map.

Earlier in October, UVA Center for Politics shifted Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) from “safe Republican” to “likely Democratic.”

Overall, after the latest race changes, the CPR report puts the number of seats Republicans have as least leaning to them at 208, Democrats have 203, while another 24 are toss-ups.

According to the UVA Center for Politics, Republicans have 214 seats leaning to them, Democrats have 204, and 17 are toss-ups.

What About the Senate?

In the race for the Senate, there are 23 Democrat seats and 11 Republican seats up for grabs in 2024.

In order to take control of the upper chamber, Republicans need just two seats to take control (which narrows to just one if they win the presidency).

Democrats, who face a historically difficult map, are defending three states that President Donald Trump won in 2020—Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.

“Democrats are playing much more defense than Republicans,” UVA Center for Politics wrote in an analysis earlier this year.

West Virginia, the second-most Trump-friendly state on the map, seems to be a strong pickup opportunity for the Republicans, with the popular Gov. Jim Justice running for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has yet to decide whether he'll be running for reelection.

If he decides to run, Mr. Manchin also faces a challenge from Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who officially tossed his hat in the ring last November.