Turkey Bombing Risks Further Unrest in a Country Already Living on the Edge

July 24, 2015 Updated: July 25, 2015

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group appears to have stepped up its war with the Kurds by bombing a meeting of socialist activists as they gathered in the town of Suruç, Turkey. The incident is not only a terrible blow to the Kurds, but also threatens further unrest in Turkey, where a failure to act over ISIS has already caused significant tension.

The activists belonged to the Federation of Socialist Youth Associations. Most were university students en route to Kobani, Syria. There, they planned to deliver books to local children and help rebuilding efforts. The explosion killed 32 activists and injured another 100.

Although ISIS has not yet officially claimed responsibility for the massacre, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu stated that there was a “high probability” that it was carried out by the group. With this attack, ISIS was identifying a new target—the nationwide Turkish network that supports the Kurdish resistance in Syria.

Turkey is concerned that the Kurdish gains in Syria will strengthen the Kurds as a regional actor, which it fears will add more complexity to the already complex Kurdish conflict.

Syria-Linked Terror

This is not the first time terror attacks originating from Syria have taken place in Turkey. In May 2013, the border town of Reyhanlı was rocked with an explosion that killed 52 and injured 146 people.

Although the Turkish government initially linked the perpetrators to the Assad regime, it later conceded that al-Qaeda was responsible for the attack.

More recent Syria-linked terror attacks have been carried out by ISIS, which has targeted Kurdish civilians and pro-Kurdish activists. The attack in Suruç follows a similar incident on June 5, 2015, at an election rally for the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). This attack killed three people and injured 100.

And another 164 Kurdish civilians were massacred on June 25 when they were attacked by disguised ISIS fighters in Kobani. Nearly 200 more were injured in the assault.

All of these attacks come against the backdrop of Kurdish successes in fighting ISIS. On June 15, the Syrian border town of Tal Abyad was liberated from ISIS control by the People’s Protection Units (YPG) with support from some Arab militia units. This was described as a major blow to ISIS because of the town’s proximity to the de facto ISIS capital city of Raqqa, Syria, and because it was a major supply route.

Turkey’s Conundrum

Turkey is deeply involved in the conflict in Syria. It has been a vocal supporter of the anti-regime forces and it is widely believed to have facilitated the transfer of weapons and fighters.

Many of the extremists fighting in Syria passed through Turkey to get there, with very little effort being made to stop them from traveling along what has been called the jihadist highway.

One of the main reasons for Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian conflict has been the prevention of the emergence of a Kurdish entity in northern Syria. So far, Turkey has refused to acknowledge the positive contribution of Kurdish forces toward the international efforts to defeat ISIS in Syria. Instead, it has, on numerous occasions, threatened to invade northern Syria to prevent the consolidation of Kurdish autonomy there.

Turkey is concerned that the Kurdish gains in Syria will strengthen the Kurds as a regional actor, which it fears will add more complexity to the already complex Kurdish conflict.

The past few months have destroyed much of the trust built up over two years through talks between the Turkish government, the HDP, and the PKK.

The Kurdish Question

The connections between the Kurdish conflict in Turkey and the ongoing conflict in Syria became clear during the height of the Kobani crisis in early October 2014. The government’s refusal to help the Kurdish forces defending Kobani against ISIS attacks resulted in widespread protests and clashes with the police.

The government subsequently used the protests as an excuse to draft a highly restrictive security bill that gave the police wide ranging powers to suppress political protest.

The government’s anti-Kurdish rhetoric reached its climax during the election campaign when the governing Justice and Development party (AKP) based its campaign on a strategy to prevent the pro-Kurdish HDP from entering parliament.

The government’s actions have been watched with much concern by the Kurds who have lent their overwhelming support to the HDP, which won 13.2 percent of the votes and 80 seats in the parliament. To the Kurds, the government’s attitude demonstrated an unwillingness to seriously engage with Kurdish representatives and develop measures to accommodate Kurdish demands.

The massacre in Suruç needs to be viewed within this context. The past few months have destroyed much of the trust built up over two years through talks between the Turkish government, the HDP, and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The Kurds view the recent rise in ISIS terror against Kurdish civilians as part of the AKP government’s attempts to weaken the Kurdish movement in Syria and frustrate the peace process in Turkey. They fear that it will lead to the renewal of violence between the PKK and the Turkish army.

Some clashes have already taken place in rural, primarily Kurdish areas, and the rising tensions could spark a major confrontation.

Cengiz Gunes is an associate lecturer at The Open University in the U.K. This article was previously published on TheConversation.com

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.