Trump in Better Position in Battleground States Than 2016: Campaign Manager

November 3, 2020 Updated: November 3, 2020

Bill Stepien, campaign manager for President Donald Trump’s 2020 election campaign, optimistically wrote in a series of tweets that Trump will win some battleground states the day before the election.

“President Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016, by a very key measure. It’s the measure that actually matters. Votes cast, and votes left to be cast.” Stepien added.

Stepien said Democratic nominee Joe Biden enjoyed a lead of 10 points weeks ago in Ohio, but it came down to only 0.6 points the day before the election.

At the same time in 2016, then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a lead of 2.5 points. Stepien went on to project that Trump will have a votes cast margin of over 400,000 in Ohio.

In 2016, Trump beat Clinton in Ohio by 51.69 percent to 43.56 percent, winning 18 electoral votes.

In North Carolina, Stepien said that in 2016 Clinton had a lead of 9.7 points, compared to Biden’s current 5.8 points lead the day before the election. Stepien projected that Trump will have a votes margin of over 400,000 in this state as well.

In Arizona, Biden’s lead is 1.2 points compared to Hillary’s 2.5 points in 2016.

In Florida, Biden’s lead is 1 point, while Hillary had a lead of 1.4 points in 2016.

In Wisconsin, Biden has a lead of 5.9 points. Hillary was up 9.6 points in 2016.

Stepien didn’t show the comparing figures for Michigan and Pennsylvania, but projected that Trump will have votes cast margins of over 400,000 and over one million respectively.

In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by only 44,292 out of over 6 million votes cast.

The above seven key states Stepien mentioned have a total of 119 electoral votes. If his prediction is right, those 119 electoral votes would be more than enough to give Trump a solid victory.

“President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day,” Stepien stated.

Stepien didn’t specify how he arrived at the projected numbers. However, Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee, often posts new figures showing how each of the recent Trump rallies drew in a considerable amount of new voters. Those figures seem to support Stepien’s claim.

The polling average still shows Biden ahead by 7.2 points nationally on Election Day.

Bill Stepien replaced former campaign manager Brad Parscale on July 15, 2020, after having served on Trump’s staff as a deputy campaign manager. He previously worked as a senior political adviser to the campaign and White House political director.