The length of the Conservative Party leadership race—six months from when it was announced in early March—has pros and cons for the party’s fortune in the next election, with some pundits backing it as prudent while others suggesting a shorter time span would have been more advantageous.
Leadership candidates have until April 19 to join the race and until June 3 to sign up members, but the vote to choose a leader won’t be held until Sept. 10.
University of Calgary political science professor Barry Cooper says the delay will “give the Liberals a huge opportunity to regroup” and make the Conservatives vulnerable to a snap election call.
“I think it’s entirely possible that Justin Trudeau will call an early election yet again,” Cooper told The Epoch Times.
A leaderless summer election “would put the Conservatives at a disadvantage for sure,” he said, but rushing an early vote after June 3 to match a federal election call wouldn’t work either.
“I think that probably Candice [Bergen, interim leader] would have to do the best she could. … [Otherwise], whoever won [the leadership] would be in a great deal of disarray.”
Jacqueline Biollo, a principal at Aurora Strategy Group, says “vulnerability is the name of the game in politics” but suggests that choosing a Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) leader the right way would be better risk management than preparedness for a summer election.
“The CPC’s approach to the leadership race is only vulnerable to internal missteps, lack of strategic planning, communication, and election readiness, not a summer election specifically,” Biollo told The Epoch Times.
“A snap vote [for leadership in response to a federal election] would leave the CPC looking even more disorganized and desperate,” she said. “A summer election with the interim leader, who has already had an opportunity to build a reputation with Canadians, might bolster confidence or at least support from voters.”
Biollo believes the CPC’s chosen process was “strategic to ensure there is a fair race with well-defined rules,” designed to reinvigorate the party with a pool of candidates. She notes, however, that the party is also “desperate to improve” on its previous two leadership races and “desperate to find the right leader to upset the current minority.”
Tom Flanagan, a retired political science professor who headed Stephen Harper’s leadership race for the Canadian Alliance, and later the CPC, says an earlier date would have helped Poilievre.
“It is unusual, I think, to have such a long period between the cut-off of membership sales and the election day. There has to be some period of time to check sales to make sure they are valid, but three months seems long. It does leave more time for the candidates to debate with each other.”
Leadership hopefuls have until April 19 to enter the contest. As it was in 2020, they must pay an entry fee of $200,000, plus a compliance deposit of $100,000, which is refundable after the election race. Members will vote for candidates on a ranked ballot.
Geoffrey Hale, a political science professor at the University of Lethbridge, believes the party “took a measured, balanced approach” on its timetable and entry fee, which could leave “five to six candidates representing a cross-section of interests, regions, and backgrounds” on the ballot.
“The June cut-off date provides a three-month window for the sale of new memberships … without letting the process drag on to the point of imperilling the next leader’s chance to recruit candidates and organize for the next election,” he said.
Candidates So Far
Poilievre was the first to declare his candidacy right after the race was announced. Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis launched her bid on March 8, and Roman Baber, independent MPP for the Toronto riding of York Centre, launched his campaign on the evening of Feb 9.Also on Feb. 9, Former Quebec premier Jean Charest confirmed he will enter the race, while Brampton, Ont., Mayor Patrick Brown is expected to announce his bid later in the week.
Rona Ambrose, a cabinet minister in the Harper government, decided not to run despite many Tories hoping she would. Former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall has also ruled out running.
Nelson Wiseman, a retired political science professor at the University of Toronto, says “nobody wants another election” this summer, so the CPC needn’t be concerned about that. However, he does think the party should have restricted the leadership vote to its existing members to keep fickle and insincere people from swaying the decision. What the party gives up in fundraising from membership and leadership drives, it would gain in the longer term, he says.
“If you want to build up a party, a cadre of people who support the party, the votes of those who have been members for 15 years and have renewed their membership every single year should not be equivalent to somebody who just signed up on June 2nd and is voting in a leadership race in September, and never does anything to the party again and will never join it again,” Wiseman said in an interview.
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