This Is What It Would Look Like if We’re Wrong About Inflation and Interest Rates

This Is What It Would Look Like if We’re Wrong About Inflation and Interest Rates
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Gary Brode
Updated:
Commentary 
One of the most interesting and valuable experiences of my investing career was the eight years I spent managing Silver Arrow Investment Management with Raji Khabbaz. Raji is currently the Portfolio Manager of ArcanX and a member of the Deep Knowledge Investing Board of Advisors. An important part of our investment process together was to figure out for each of our positions what it would look like if we were wrong. That forethought allowed us to move very quickly at crucial inflection points. I’ve spent the last two months outlining my concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the misrepresentation of key measures of the economy. However, there are smart people who believe that my concerns are overdone and that everything will end up fine. Let’s give those arguments a fair hearing.
Gary Brode
Gary Brode
Author
Gary Brode has spent three decades in the hedge fund business. Most recently, he was Managing Partner and Senior Portfolio manager for Silver Arrow Investment Management, a concentrated long-only hedge fund with options-based hedging. In 2020, he launched Deep Knowledge Investing, a research firm that works with portfolio managers, RIAs, family offices, and individuals to help them earn higher returns in the equity portion of their portfolios. Mr. Brode’s work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s, and in appearances on CNBC, Bloomberg West, and RealVision.
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