In economic analysis you have estimates and official data. Analysts estimate what they think the official number is going to be. They are successful if the estimate is close to the official target.
With China’s GDP it’s a bit different. The official number—6.9 percent for the third quarter of 2015—is more like an advertisement for the Chinese economy and has little to do with the situation on the ground. You can chose to buy the product, or not.
So sometimes GDP estimates for China are more accurate than the official data. Here are Epoch Times favorites for the third quarter of 2015
1. Lombard Street Research: 1.5 Percent Annualized
Rationale: Net exports subtracted a bigger chunk than first estimated. Quarter on quarter, we reckon growth was just 0.4 percent. Banks are saddled with bad debt, so cutting the lending rate will have a muted
effect on growth.
