Strong Economic Growth Forecast for San Jose and San Francisco

June 3, 2021 Updated: June 3, 2021

Commentary

Employment information jobs in San Jose, San Francisco and Seattle increased five percent in 2020, despite a large number of anecdotal evidence to the contrary—and also despite a six percent decrease of information jobs across the U.S. during the pandemic-ravaged year.

Broadly speaking, “information jobs” includes employment in traditional media such as publication, telecommunications, broadcasting and film and television production, as well as newer jobs in software development, web hosting and data processing.

These strong engines of economic growth are expected to create the foundation for even further local GDP grown in the metro areas around San Jose and San Francisco through 2025.

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Silicon Valley, the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metropolitan area, is forecast to see its local economy expand a further 25 percent from 2020 through 2025 after increasing 41 percent during the 2015-2019 time period.

That is the prognostication of the just published research briefing on U.S. Cities published by Oxford Economics.

Oxford Economics expects the local economy in the San Francisco-Oakland metropolitan area to grow an additional 17 percent during the 2020 to 2025 period after growing 31 percent during the previous five-year period.

The U.S. economy, by contrast, is expected to grow 10 percent from 2020 to 2025.

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The research briefing notes: “Although anecdotal reports of a reluctance to ever return to the tech hubs [including San Francisco and San Jose] abound, the consequential decline in office and apartment rents in the dense urban cores could easily draw other [residents and companies], who had previously been deterred by lack of affordability.”

Summarizing its findings, Oxford Economics said:  “The data thus far suggest that the steep initial losses in the western cities will correct this year and next, as most residents return to their homes.  And as consumer businesses and cultural institutions re-open, others will be drawn to the cities to once again enjoy dining, art, and live performances. These cultural amenities, along with sharp rent corrections, are likely to draw urban enthusiasts back to major cities.”

Tim Shaler is a professional investor and economist based in Southern California. He is a regular columnist for The Epoch Times, where he exclusively provides some of his original economic analysis.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tim Shaler
Tim Shaler
Tim Shaler is a professional investor and economist based in Southern California. He is a regular columnist for The Epoch Times, where he exclusively provides some of his original economic analysis.