Commentary
The theme for incoming Secretary of State Antony Blinken in 2021 and the mantra for the entire Biden administration was clear: The adults are back in charge. As the world hurtles toward conflict, as China conducts influence operations in an unrestrained manner, and as former, trusted partners of the United States have seemingly changed sides, the question is, who’s in charge, or perhaps, is there anyone in charge of American diplomacy?
DIME is the key term that national security leaders learn, which describes the four essential instruments of American national power: diplomacy, information, military, and economic. There’s a reason the “D” is first—it’s because diplomacy is supposed to be visible, active, and the instrument of first choice. The Obama administration seemed to have no problem with the term “leading from behind,” which in some ways meant that they were still on the field influencing events, with diplomacy still the key tool, but awkwardly applying it from a less than advantageous position on the world playing field.
With partners breaking ranks, and the viability of the dollar as the reserve currency now receiving an unprecedented challenge, you would think that Blinken would be frenetic on the world stage, acting at warp speed, issuing policy statements, announcing new initiatives, and being front and center in the media rallying the free world alongside the United States in a full court blitz. This doesn’t appear to be happening. The lack of an energetic response is not inspiring.
Saudi Arabia Chooses China
In a stunning move, Saudi Arabia has, for all intents and purposes, aligned itself with China. Reflecting upon several factors, it was a realistic move in many ways for the Saudis and the ruling family. The Biden Team has given Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Saudi leadership the cold shoulder. As far back as the 2019 Democratic presidential debates, Biden has used confidence-building phrases such as his intent to turn Saudi Arabia into a “pariah.” Newsflash to Secretary of State Blinken: As the primary official responsible for the statecraft of diplomacy, this is not the way to build friends and make headway in international relationship building.Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia in July 2022 fell flat and reeked of pandering for oil price reductions while ignoring numerous less-than-ingratiating comments about Saudi Arabia, the Biden policy of going “green” on energy, and the strong Biden commitment to rapprochement with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s arch-nemesis. There has also been bi-partisan clamor for ending arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
With all of this, the answer from MBS’s point of view was intuitive: China is the future, and now Saudi Arabia and Iran have announced new Chinese-brokered accords. Blinken’s meek response: The deal was a “good thing”; not exactly a quote that will be remembered in the history books. Blinken now embraces expanding former President Donald Trump’s historic Abraham Accords, which seems redundant in light of the Saudi shift.
Macron Advocates a New Course
Following on the heels of the Iran–Saudi Arabia deal, French President Emmanuel Macron flew to Beijing and shortly returned with several baffling public statements, such as questioning the dollar as the reserve currency, affirming de Gaulle-like separation from the United States, and introducing ambiguity about French intent to assist in the deterrence of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.Even Taiwan was puzzled by the comments. Macron’s comments seem to be an abrupt and confusing about-face after sending a carrier task force to the Indian Ocean and further into the Pacific in January and inserting a French frigate into the Taiwan Straits during the Chinese military surge toward Taiwan in the wake of President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the Reagan Library.
Much of Macron’s behavior can be explained by Blinken’s historic gaffe in the new AUKUS Agreement (Australia, United Kingdom, United States), which had Australia cancel a massive deal with France and instead insert the AUKUS deal for submarines, cyber, hypersonic missiles, and other matters. The historic snubbing of France and failure of Blinken to coordinate, inform, re-negotiate, or include France in AUKUS was an incredible breach of decorum of international affairs, and it’s hard to find a historical precedent of such shabby treatment of an American ally. The Australian–French deal for submarines was running into significant problems, but the absence of an American diplomatic outreach to make it a win-win for all was a grievous failure.
China Postures to Lead Ukraine Negotiations
China has proposed a 12-point Peace Plan to bring a negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine and appears to be the most respected country by the warring countries to mediate, despite massive U.S. aid to Ukraine. Chinese leader Xi Jinping also recently traveled to Moscow for follow-up on the “no limits” partnership to wrest world leadership away from the United States.Compounded by Brazil’s interest in pivoting from the dollar to the yuan, the world order is rapidly changing, and impactful leadership from the U.S. Secretary of State is needed more than ever.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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