MLB Award Winners: Predicting Who Wins MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year

Will Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh take home AL MVP honors? Can Shohei Ohtani do something that only Barry Bonds has done before?

Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners reacts after lining out during the sixth inning against the Colorado Rockies at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Wash., on Sept. 23, 2025. Steph Chambers/Getty Images

The 2025 MLB regular season is now in the rearview mirror with 2,430 total games in the books. The MLB postseason is right around the corner, but before looking ahead to the playoffs, we should look back at the season that was.

Major League Baseball won’t officially announce its major award winners until the conclusion of the World Series, likely sometime in November, but we can predict who will take home the most coveted of hardware.

Here are projections for who will be the 2025 MLB award winners for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year.

AL MVP: Cal Raleigh, Mariners

It’s a two-man race between Raleigh and the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, with the latter seeking his third MVP award.

Raleigh set numerous records en route to 60 home runs, including most homers by a catcher, by a switch-hitter, and by a Mariner, while, outside of home runs and RBI, Judge topped Raleigh’s numbers across the board. The Yankee led the AL in wins above replacement, on-base plus slugging, runs scored, and total bases, and collected his first career batting title.

However, MLB voters love a great narrative, and Raleigh led Seattle to its first divisional crown in 24 years, while the Yankees finished as runner-up in the AL East. Also, the demanding position of catcher that Raleigh plays matters, considering the numbers he put up, while Judge’s defensive value took a step back this year. He moved from center field to right field full-time and went 41 straight days without taking the field, due to a stint on the injured list and then serving as designated hitter. As a result, Raleigh logged approximately 250 more innings in the field, which gives him the edge to win the MVP.

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

The NL race is somewhat similar to the AL one in that the top two contenders are someone who is clearly the best player in the league—Ohtani—and a slugger who led the league in both home runs and RBI: Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber. However, Ohtani led the Senior Circuit in a number of stats outside of home runs and RBI, including total bases, runs scored, and OPS. What the two did outside of the batter’s box also heavily leans in Ohtani’s favor.

The two-way superstar saw just 47 innings on the mound, but he was electric with a 2.87 ERA. Ohtani enters the postseason having not allowed a run over his last 17.1 innings pitched, while Schwarber is all bat and no glove (or arm). He played just eight games in the field all season compared to 154 games as DH.

Ohtani is the heavy favorite to win his fourth MVP award, which would make him and Barry Bonds (seven) the only players in MLB history with more than three MVPs.

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, Tigers

While the Boston tandem of Garrett Crochet as a starter and Aroldis Chapman as a reliever was impressive, Skubal should collect his second straight Cy Young award.

The Detroit ace, somehow, improved his numbers nearly across the board from last year’s magical season, as he increased his K/BB and dropped his WHIP, FIP, and ERA—leading the AL in several categories.

Skubal has actually lowered his ERA in every season since making his 2020 debut, and he never followed up a poor start with another one as he didn’t allow four-plus ER in back-to-back starts all year.

NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, Pirates

Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez was lights out with a sub-2.00 ERA in three of the last four months of the season. But Skenes had an ERA under 2.00 for the entire season, marking the second straight year he’s done that.

Thus, the Pirates ace is nearly a lock to win what could be the first of many Cy Young awards. Skenes had just a 10–10 record, but that was due to the Pirates ranking last in baseball in both runs scored and OPS. His 1.97 ERA led the majors, as did his ERA+ of 217.

Interestingly, if Skenes does indeed take home the Cy Young award, then his 10 victories would tie for the fewest in MLB history by a Cy Young winner, excluding relievers who won the award or the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

AL Rookie of the Year: Nick Kurtz, Athletics

The A’s could finish 1–2 in Rookie of the Year voting with Kurtz and shortstop Jacob Wilson. The former played less than 75 percent of the season due to a late April call-up and an IL stint, but he still topped all first-year players in home runs (36), RBI (86), and runs (90). Both his slugging percentage and OPS were second-best in the AL amongst all players, not just rookies, and he was also a plus defensively at first base.

NL Rookie of the Year: Drake Baldwin, Braves

Atlanta’s seven-year postseason streak came to an end in 2025, but a player like Baldwin gives it hope that it can start another streak as soon as 2026.

A third-round pick in 2022, Baldwin made the big-league club out of Spring Training and was one of the few pillars of consistency for the Braves. He hit .274 with an .810 OPS, slugging 19 home runs with 80 RBI, and performed so well that catcher Sean Murphy—who was an Atlanta All-Star just two years ago—was relegated to a backup role.

AL Manager of the Year: John Schneider, Blue Jays

Boston’s Alex Cora certainly deserves mention after the team traded away Rafael Devers and then managed to play even better, resulting in a postseason berth. But this award often goes to a manager whose team greatly exceeded expectations, and that describes Schneider’s Blue Jays. They won 20 more games than last year, and their 94 wins are the most by Toronto in 32 years.

Schneider’s batting order optimization is a thing to behold, as he always put his batters in the best spots in the lineup, which resulted in Toronto leading MLB in both batting average (.265) and on-base percentage (.333).

NL Manager of the Year: Pat Murphy, Brewers

Doing more with less describes Murphy’s job with the Brewers—despite ranking 17th in MLB in total payroll, Milwaukee posted the best record in the majors at 97–65.

The Brewers were the most complete team in the regular season, ranking second in batting average, second in team ERA, and fifth in fielding defensive efficiency. The team never lost more than three games in a row, starting in May, and they never had a full month of play with a record below .500.