Tuesday night NBA games in February usually don’t generate many headlines, as it’s the dog days of the NBA season. That wasn’t the case with the Memphis Grizzlies’ 119–112 road victory over the Phoenix Suns.
The main takeaway from the game wasn’t Memphis winning its fifth contest over its last six games, or Phoenix suffering its fifth defeat over its last six contests, but rather a historic achievement for Kevin Durant.
The four-time scoring champion eclipsed the 30,000-point plateau, making him just the eighth player in the 79-year history of the National Basketball Association to reach the milestone.
With his play and scoring ability still at an elite level, the questions are, how many more points will Durant score, and how high up the all-time scoring list can he rise?
If he simply maintains his output over the rest of the season, and the last year of his contract, then he would be knocking on 33,000 points at the end of the 2025–2026 season, which would have him surpassing Chamberlain, Nowitzki, and Jordan, putting Durant in fifth place.
Bryant (33,643) could then easily be reached in the 2026–2027 season, when Durant will be 38 years old. However, then reaching Malone (36,928) for third place is when things get tricky. Durant would need roughly 4,000 points starting with the 2026–2027 season to surpass the Mailman, and while he’s reached half of that—2,000 points—in seven different seasons, most of those came earlier in his career. He’s not on pace to reach it this year, meaning it will be just twice over the last nine seasons that he’s reached 2,000 in a year.
A big reason for that is due to missed time, and you can’t avoid talking about that when bringing up Durant, who was an ironman in his first seven seasons but has been frequently sidelined over the last decade. Durant played in 542 of a possible 558 games through his first seasons, lacing up for 97.1 percent of team games. However, since then, and including the entire season he missed due to a torn Achilles’ tendon, Durant has played in 559 of a possible 853 games, or 65.5 percent.
Father Time is undefeated, and one can’t expect Durant to be healthier in his late 30s than he was from his late 20s to his mid-30s. Thus, reaching Malone for third on the all-time list may be a monumental task, unless Durant plays into his 40s. That’s something that the NBA’s three-leading all-time scorers—Malone, Abdul-Jabbar, and James—all have done, so that may end up being the prerequisite to cracking the top three.
As for others who have 30,000 points on the horizon, James Harden appears to be the active player with the best chance of reaching the milestone. Even though his production has dramatically decreased since his Rockets days, Harden (26,931 points) should be roughly 2,500 points away after this season and is one year younger than Durant. He could reach 30,000 in another two years after this season, while another couple of Durant’s former teammates—Russell Westbrook (25,834 points) and Steph Curry (24,694 points)—are both longshots.
Westbrook is also 36 years old, but his two lowest scoring averages have come in the past two seasons as he’s moved into primarily a bench role at this stage of his career. As for Curry, he’ll be 37 in a few weeks and has his own injury concerns. His scoring average this year of 23.3 is his lowest in a dozen years.