The final regular season college football AP poll is out, and losses by significant teams once again created problems for conferences and the College Football Playoff (CFP) committee.
This coming weekend presents nine conference championship games for teams to make their case for the CFP. There will be some teams who can make a great case to get in and won’t, and there will be teams that get in—and a bye—by virtue of winning their conference championship. Even with the playoff expanding to 12 teams, not everyone is going to be happy.
Here’s the crazy reality we live in as college football fans: there’s a chance this weekend that Arizona State (Big 12), Texas (SEC), Oregon (Big Ten) and SMU (ACC) will win their respective conference championship games in their first seasons in those conferences.
Here’s how the teams line up heading into the conference championship weekend.
1. Oregon (12–0, Big Ten)
Oregon has already earned a spot in the CFP by virtue of finishing their regular season undefeated. They’ll play Penn State now in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night for the right to have a first-round bye.2. Texas (11–1, SEC)
Texas is also likely in the CFP with only one loss in the SEC. The intrigue now surrounds their second game with Georgia this season, which comes mid-afternoon on Saturday in the SEC championship game. The winner gets a bye.3. Penn State (11–1, Big Ten)
Penn State will play Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game this weekend thanks to Michigan’s stunning Ohio State. A second loss for Penn State would complicate the CFP rankings; Indiana would be there with only one regular season loss but a weaker schedule than Penn State. And Ohio State is still in the mix with their season over.4. Notre Dame (11–1, Independent)
The Irish clinched a playoff berth with their win at USC on Saturday. As an independent, their season is over and they can sit back and wait for their assignment. A reminder: because the top four spots (and byes) in the CFP go to conference champions, Notre Dame cannot have a bye.5. Georgia (10–2, SEC)
Georgia beat Texas in Austin earlier this season, so they’re likely to get into the playoff even if they suffer a third loss in the SEC title game. They’ve been inconsistent and needed eight overtimes to beat Georgia Tech this past weekend.6. Tennessee (10–2, SEC)
With their regular season in the books and no conference championship game on the schedule, the Volunteers appear to be set for a playoff berth. But conference championship games are going to have a huge impact on the seeding.7. Ohio State (10–2, Big Ten)
The loss to Michigan costs them five spots in the poll and a chance to play for a Big Ten championship. It also costs them a chance to play for a bye in the playoff. No players were suspended because of the fights that broke out after the game on Saturday, so they’ll have their full roster for a playoff game.8. SMU (11–1, ACC)
The ACC Championship Game is one where the winner could create all sorts of chaos for the CFP committee. A one-loss SMU getting a bye would be much easier to see than a two-loss Clemson team. They’ll battle on Saturday night.
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass during an NCAA college football game against Washington, in Eugene, Ore., on Nov. 30, 2024. Lydia Ely/AP Photo
9. Indiana (11–1, Big Ten)
Indiana benefits enormously from Miami losing at Syracuse. They move back into the top ten and their one loss appears a little more impressive as they hope for a CFP berth.10. Boise State (11–1, Mountain West)
Boise State will host UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game on Friday night with an outside chance at a bye by virtue of being one of the four highest-ranked conference champions.11. Alabama (9–3, SEC)
This ranking might lead one to believe a three-loss Alabama has a chance of being included in the CFP—and it could happen. They’ll need a lot of help and can’t do anything to improve their resume at this point, but there’s a chance.12. Arizona State (10–2, Big 12)
Like Boise State, Arizona State now has a chance to earn one of the four automatic byes in the playoff. They’ll play Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game in the first game of significance on Saturday afternoon.13. South Carolina (9–3, SEC)
The Gamecocks moved up three spots after their non-conference win against in-state rival Clemson. A strong season for South Carolina will get them a solid bowl game.14. Miami (FL) (10–2, ACC)
A devastating loss by Miami at Syracuse and Clemson’s loss to South Carolina throws the entire playoff picture into the blender for the ACC. It certainly appears they’ll be on the outside of the CFP now with their regular season in the books and no chance to win the ACC.15. Mississippi (9–3, SEC)
Lane Kiffin is certainly out there making the case for the Rebels to get a shot at the playoff despite their three losses, but they’ll need more help than Alabama to get in.
Georgia linebacker Chaz Chambliss (32) celebrates his fumble recovery in overtime of an NCAA college football game against Georgia Tech, in Athens, Ga., on Nov. 30, 2024. Mike Stewart/AP Photo
