2026 Kentucky Derby: The Favorite, Longshots, and Storylines for the Triple Crown’s First Jewel

The Run for the Roses takes place Saturday with Renegade the favorite, Litmus Test a speedy longshot, and trainer Bob Baffert seeking horse racing history.

A horse walks back to the barn area during morning workouts ahead of the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on April 25, 2026. Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The Kentucky Derby has many monikers—The Run for the Roses, The First Jewel of the Triple Crown—but perhaps the most fitting is The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports, as there is always so much buildup for an event that lasts 120 seconds.

The 152nd running of the Derby takes place Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

The official kickoff of the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing, with all of its pomp and circumstance, has become a mainstream and pop culture event that attracts more than just die-hard horse racing fans. But the focus remains on the 20 horses that will race the 1 1/4 miles, and here’s what you should know.

The Favorite

Favorites win roughly 33 percent of horse races, giving Renegade a 1 in 3 chance of prevailing on Saturday. His status is certainly warranted, as he’s coming off back-to-back wins, and his half-brother, Sovereignty, won the Derby just last year. Also, Renegade is trained by Todd Pletcher, the most experienced trainer in Derby history, having sent a record 65 starters to the race, winning it twice.

But working against Renegade is history, both recent and more long-term. In regard to the former, each of the last seven favored horses have failed to win the Derby. Renegade also drew the undesirable No. 1 post on the starting gate. That means he’ll be on the rail and at risk of 19 other horses veering in his direction attempting to get inside position. It’s been 40 years since a horse from the No. 1 post won the Derby, so Renegade is seeking to end multiple droughts.

Other Contenders

Outside of Renegade, a pair of colts from the same stable are attracting the most attention as second co-favorites. Commandment and Further Ado are both trained by Brad Cox, a Louisville native who won in his Kentucky Derby debut in 2021. Both horses already have Churchill Downs victories from earlier in their careers, and each has multiple graded stakes wins. However, the biggest difference between the two is who will be riding them.

The jockey aboard Further Ado will be John Velazquez, the winningest jockey, by earnings, in the history of the sport. He’s already in the Racing Hall of Fame and has the second-most mounts (26) in Derby history, and no living person has more Derby wins (three) than Velazquez.

As for Commandment, his jockey is Luis Saez, who is no slouch himself and has over 3,500 career wins. But none of those have come in the Derby, where he is zero for 12 all-time. Saez’s best finish was third place. There are just three jockeys in the 152-year history of the Kentucky Derby with more mounts without either a first- or second-place finish.

Longshots

Much of the appeal of thoroughbred racing revolves around the overlooked and undervalued horses, of which there are several in the 2026 field. One is Right to Party, and not just because his name is the unofficial slogan of those in the infield of Churchill Downs on Derby Day. The horse drew the favorable No. 5 post, which has historically been the most successful position in the starting gate. The five-post has the most all-time winners (10), the highest win rate (10.4 percent) and the best average finish (7.56) of any of the 23 posts that have been used in Derby history.

Another longshot getting some attention is Litmus Test, due to the sheer speed he brings to the table. His top speed figure of 105 ranks third among this year’s field—behind only Renegade (107) and Further Ado (107)—yet there are 10 horses with shorter odds to win. That’s because while fans are often fascinated with speed, it’s simply one factor that goes into winning. But Litmus Test also has pedigree on his side—his father, Nyquist, won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

Storylines

Perhaps the biggest name in all of horse racing is that of Bob Baffert. The legendary and controversial trainer won the last two Triple Crowns (2015, 2018), and he’s prevailed at an individual Triple Crown race an astounding 17 times. Baffert has won the Derby six times, and another victory would give him the most outright wins by a trainer in history. He has two chances in this year’s field with the aforementioned Litmus Test, as well as Potente, who is a half-brother of the favorite, Renegade.

History could also be made if the Japan-born and bred Wonder Dean were to triumph. Of the 151 prior Derby winners, 117 were born in Kentucky, 30 were born in another state, and just four were born outside of the United States. Those four were split between Canada and England, so Wonder Dean can become the fifth international horse, and the first Japanese horse, ever to win The Run for the Roses.

Lastly, there’s the visual of the Derby when the 20 horses enter the starting gate. Spectators will notice that two colts stand out from the other 18 due to their coat color. Roughly 85 percent of thoroughbreds are brown or some shade of brown such as chestnut or bay. However, the other 15 percent are a shade of gray, officially labeled as gray/roan. The two gray horses in this year’s field are Pavlovian and the appropriately named Great White. With so few gray horses annually in the Derby, it comes as no surprise that the last 20 races have been won by a horse that was some shade of brown. Thus, Pavlovian and Great White are attempting to end that drought as Kentucky Derby longshots.

The Kentucky Derby 2026 will go to post at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. It will be broadcast on NBC and streamed on Peacock.