The midterm elections seem to be coming down to how Americans feel about soaring inflation and a wobbly economy, the latest polls show, defying messaging from President Joe Biden and the Democrats, who have sought to drum up voter interest in issues like access to abortions, threats to democracy, and climate change.
The latest survey from The Economist/YouGov (
pdf), based on a sample of 1,500 American adults during the first week of November, shows that the top two issues on their minds as they head into the polls on Tuesday are the economy and inflation.
A whopping 73 percent of Americans said they’re thinking “a lot” about the economy, followed by 68 percent who said the same of inflation.
Biden and members of his administration, as well as Federal Reserve officials, initially argued that inflation would be a short-lived “transitory” spike that would soon fall back down to around the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target.
But inflation has since proved to be sticky and the Fed has embarked on an aggressive rate hiking cycle that economists warn could tip the economy into a recession, if it’s not already in one, as two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth suggest.
Most Americans (53 percent) believe the country is in a recession, compared to 22 percent who think it isn’t, according to the poll.
‘Time to Change Course’?
For Republicans, key messages this election cycle have been Biden’s handling of the economy amid multi-decade-high inflation.“Democrats across the country went from pretending inflation does not exist to now saying they ‘understand the pain’ of those suffering from the economy they created. It’s time to change course,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said in a
post on Twitter late Monday.
Democrats, by contrast, have focused more on issues that appear to be less top-of-mind for voters, like access to abortion, the fight against climate change, and “threats to democracy.”
Biden argued at a weekend rally in Yonkers that “democracy is literally on the ballot” and called this election “a choice between two fundamentally different visions of America.”
But with
poll after poll (
pdf) indicating that U.S. voters are more interested in bread-and-butter issues like high grocery prices and elevated costs of filling up their cars, some Democrat strategists have warned that their party of choice focused on the wrong issues this election cycle.
Democrat strategist and CNN political commentator Hilary Rosen said over the weekend that she expects Democrats will have a “bad night” as the numbers come in from Election Day polls.
“I’m a loyal Democrat, but I am not happy. I just think that we did not listen to voters in this election, and I think we’re going to have a bad night,” she said in an
appearance on CNN.
“When voters tell you over and over and over again that they care mostly about the economy, listen to them,” Rosen said, adding that, ”I don’t think Democrats have delivered this cycle.”
Meanwhile, The Economist/YouGov poll shows that 70 percent of American adults say the economy under Biden’s watch is fair or poor, compared to 24 percent who say it’s excellent or good.
Red Wave Coming?
With Election Day dawning, polls are showing that the GOP is poised to retake both the House and Senate, though the battle for control of the upper chamber is more closely contested.Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics shows that Republicans are ahead of Democrats by 2.5 points, or 48.0 percent to 45.5 percent in a
generic congressional vote poll, as at the time of reporting.
Democrats are projected to win 174 House seats compared to Republicans’ 227, with 34 seats considered toss-ups,
according to RealClearPolitics.
The race for the Senate is tighter, with Republicans expected to pick up 48 Senate seats to Democrats’ 44, with eight races seen as toss-ups,
according to RealClearPolitics.
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