Saudi Price Cuts Send Oil Lower – Can This Continue?

October 9, 2014 Updated: April 23, 2016

Commodities markets have seen spikes in volatility over the last few sessions on news of the Saudi price cut for oil exports. Oil prices are now trading at their lowest levels in more than a year, and moves like these are important given the fact that price trends in the September period will often dictate what is seen for the remainder of the year. Fundamentally, this announcement implies Saudi Arabia is less likely to reduce output so traders will need to monitor these areas in order to determine whether or not these price trends will be sustainable.

“Over the last few months, supply levels in oil markets have been largely sufficient,” said Vlad Karpel, options strategist at TradeSpoon. “This has sent prices in Brent — the global benchmark — to sub-$100 levels for the first time in 15 months.” So far prices have failed to overcome this highly important psychological level. So going forward, commodities traders will need to look for evidence that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries is actually cutting its production in order to send market valuations back into triple-digit territory.

Assets like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) and iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV) will likely show a positive correlation to moves seen in the United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE: USO). Inverse correlations here would then be seen in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP). Here, we look at the latest technical developments in gold, silver, and crude oil.

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United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE: USO)

Critical Resistance: 35.60
Critical Support: 34.10

Trading Bias: Bearish

 USO  Crude Oil ts

(Chart Source: CornerTrader)

USO / Crude Oil Trading Strategy: Oil ETFs are still a sell on rallies. Wait for prices to retrace back to at least the mid-point of its recent range (upper 34s in USO) before selling these assets.

The USO ETF has seen some increased volatility in recent weeks, with price action unfolding in pronounced bullish and bearish waves. These wave have been contained with a definable range, however, so this creates some nice shorting scenarios if prices move back toward the mid-35s. The Daily RSI indicator is now heavily oversold, so there is clear risk for a corrective move to the topside which could catch bearish traders short if they are too late to the game. Much more prudent to set sell orders in the upper 34s or above.

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SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD)

Critical Resistance: 117.50
Critical Support: 115.80

Trading Bias: Watching for Bullish Rebound

gld trading 

Chart Source: CornerTrader)

GLD / Gold Trading Strategy: GLD has seen a massive sell-off but wait for moves back into 117.50 resistance before entering into new short positions. This area offers better risk-reward ratio relative to current market pricing.

GLD has seen a massive sell-off lately but this increases the risk corrective pullbacks that are in line with the bullish direction. RSI is rising, this suggests we might have seen a bottom at 115.80 and it is relatively clear at this stage that most of the bearish majority has already made its presence felt. Longer term, the trend is still negative but we will need to see some retracement back toward the 100/200 average area before considering a new short position. Initial resistance can now be found at 117.50, so bears that are trading from a more aggressive stance can use this area to short the market and capitalize on better risk to reward scenarios. Alternatively, a clear break of the 117.50 area would indicate that a medium term bottom in place at 115.80.