The assassination of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey could actually bring the two regional powers closer together, with Russia reaping political benefits by arguing that it has paid a high price for fighting terrorism as Turkey, embarrassed by its security breaches, increasingly coordinates with Russia in neighboring Syria.
The two nations were already trying to resolve their differences over the war in Syria since Turkey shot down a Russian military jet along the Syrian border last year.
The measured reactions of their leaders to the killing Monday night of Ambassador Andrei Karlov by a Turkish policeman in Ankara shows they want to stay on the path toward reconciliation. High-level officials from Russia and Turkey, as well as Iran, went ahead with a previously scheduled meeting Tuesday in Moscow on the Syrian crisis.
The prospect of closer ties between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could have implications for the West, which has had contentious relations with both leaders and is also trying to engineer a solution to the Syrian war and the millions of refugees it has created.
Still, Turkey, a NATO member and an ally in the U.S.-led war on the Islamic State group operating in Iraq and Syria, has historical links to the West that won’t erode anytime soon.
“There are more structural reasons out there that pin Turkey to the West, and they are not very easy to change despite what might be going on deep in the hearts of Turkey’s rulers,” said Ahmet Kasim Han, an associate professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.
While both Russia and Turkey are militarily involved in Syria, Russia is the senior partner in any deal-making in a conflict that has sent several million refugees across the border into Turkey, straining its resources and economy.
Russian bombardments of rebel-held areas, including parts of Aleppo, have helped tilt the war in Syrian President Bashar Assad’s favor. Turkey, meanwhile, has largely dropped its vociferous demands that Assad step down. It now appears more focused on a perceived threat from Syrian Kurds linked to Kurdish militants inside Turkey.
