BEIRUT—In ramping up its military involvement in Syria’s civil war, Russia appears to be betting that the West, horrified by the spread of ISIS and an escalating migrants crisis, may be willing to quietly tolerate President Bashar Assad for a while, perhaps as part of a transition.
The logic is that prioritizing the fight with the jihadi fighters means accepting Assad as the less bad option despite his own brutal acts, and might produce a more effective and coordinated fight in the air and on the ground.
It also would reorganize an awkward situation in Syria, whereby the Assad regime and the U.S.-led coalition are actively fighting the same group but do not act like allies—as opposed to coordination the coalition maintains with the central Baghdad authorities in the parallel fight against ISIS in neighboring Iraq.
Russia has no such complications.
A longtime backer of Syria’s government, Moscow has recently increased its military activity in Syria, sending military advisers, technicians, and security guards with the main goal of setting up an air base near the coastal town of Latakia, a stronghold of the Syrian president. There are reports that the Russians had flown in troops and modular housing units. And Israel’s defense minister, Moshe Yaalon, said he expects Russians to be fighting alongside Assad’s troops.
Even more than the concurrent assistance by Iran and proxy Shiite militias on behalf of Assad, Russian military intervention could potentially be a game changer in the Syrian conflict, tipping the scales in a spectacularly ruinous civil war that has killed a quarter of a million people and created a massive global humanitarian crisis.
Scale of Conflict
The degree and speed of the impact depends on scale. And there is also a chance that the Russian efforts could prolong the bloodshed, counteracting the various U.S. efforts to train and arm palatable rebel groups.
Russia claims it is mainly motivated by fighting ISIS. But U.S. President Barack Obama cast the buildup as an effort to prop up Assad.
Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, warned that “doubling down” on the Assad regime “is not a winning strategy.” In an interview with CNN, she said, “Assad cannot be part of a solution ... because he gasses his people, uses barrel bombs against them, and is responsible for one of the worst torture campaigns in modern memory.” Even if “all you cared about is (Islamic State) this is not going to bring peace or succeed in defeating terrorism,” she said.
Despite such statements, evidence suggests Russian President Vladimir Putin believes the West can be swayed, if only informally. Moscow may also hope that a creatively constructive role in Syria might help improve ties with the West, ravaged in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis.
“Putin has proven an excellent tactician on the Syrian crisis, and he currently likely senses a chance to increase Russia’s prestige and influence with relatively little pushback from the international community,” said Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa director of the London-based Eurasia group.
“Putin probably realizes that the U.S. and Europe are no longer enthusiastic about regime change in Syria and are more focused on the threat of the Islamic State [ISIS],” he added.
