Putin Is Beijing’s Plaything

China’s 'unlimited' support gave Russia greenlight to invade Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Feb. 4, 2022. (Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

Commentary

Contrary to the popular narrative coming from Moscow, neither the United States nor NATO are at fault for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In fact, other than Russian President Vladimir Putin himself, Beijing—not Washington—bears much of the blame for Russia’s invasion.

That will become evident in a moment.

But first, let’s look at a few reasons that Putin has given for his invasion of Ukraine.

Putin’s Realpolitik Rationale

One explanation is Putin’s realpolitik view of international relations. Put simply, realpolitik views the world through a balance of power lens, and often in zero-sum terms, wherein one nation’s gain in power is another’s loss.

Balance of power analysis typically maintains that the more centers of power there are, the more difficult it becomes to maintain a balance among the nations and, therefore, the more unstable the world becomes. Such a state of “multipolarity,” is inherently less stable than either bipolarity, exemplified by the Cold War between the United States and USSR­, or unipolarity, typified by the post-Cold War position the United States has enjoyed for the past three decades.

In this new multipolar era, nations’ security challenges are more complex, making the world less stable. That’s why multipolarity typically increases the odds of war breaking out. History bears this out, as both World Wars occurred in eras of multipolarity.

Putin’s Fictional Non-Expansion Agreement

Thus, Putin views Ukraine’s westward tilt as an increase in NATO’s power at the expense of Russia’s, as well as a violation of treaties signed by the United States, Russia, and others.

He’s half right. On the one hand, adding former Soviet nations—such as Hungary and Poland—added power to NATO. On the other hand, according to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who was personally involved in the negotiations, NATO expansion eastward was never discussed nor disallowed.

“The topic of ‘NATO expansion’ was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a single Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn’t bring it up, either,” Gorbachev told Russia Beyond in an interview on October 2014.

Thus, no such agreement was ever made or even discussed. Putin is lying about NATO violating a treaty that never existed.

Ukraine’s Interest Is Economic Growth

But even though Ukraine is not a NATO member, its national interest is in economic growth, not military power. If it were the latter, it would not have voluntarily given up its nuclear missiles three decades ago.

Still, Kyiv’s preference to be aligned with the richer, liberal West than it does to Putin’s autocratic, nuclear-armed Russia, which itself is an economic basket case, is a de facto loss for Russia.

The reality is that Ukraine can benefit from the West without being a member of NATO. In fact, NATO has no plans to put missiles in Ukraine.

Putin Clings to China for Relevance

Thus, Putin’s real fear isn’t of Ukraine’s defection to the West, but rather Russia’s declining economic power. Invading Ukraine is one way to capture economic output and resources.

So too, however, is aligning itself with China.

Beijing’s pre-Olympic declaration of “unlimited support” for Moscow didn’t happen in a vacuum. There is no question that China knew of Russia’s planned invasion of Ukraine.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping blessed Putin’s plans with promised access to Chinese capital, markets, and diplomatic cover for the invasion.

The timing of their mutual alignment is less important than the fact that both agreed to it. Russia’s Ukraine invasion is an immediate outcome of China’s support.

Now, with the West strangling the Russian economy in virtually every quarter—including access to $630 billion in U.S. financial institutions, SWIFT access denial, and Western corporations divesting from Russia, as well as the announced U.S. boycott of Russian oil—Moscow needs Beijing’s support now more than ever.

President Joe Biden announces a ban on all Russian oil imports as part of the United States' latest move to isolate Russia’s economy in response to its invasion of Ukraine, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Washington, on March 8, 2022. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Putin Is Beijing’s Useful Idiot

Furthermore, as noted in my prior post, Russia and China are busy setting up an alternative, non-dollar-denominated global financial system. This will purportedly help the Russian economy become immune to U.S. sanctions, but little else.

The truth is that neither Ukraine nor U.S. sanctions pose the greatest threat to Russia. Putin’s authoritarian regime and its economic and foreign policies are what are destroying the country.

One other truth is that the longer Putin stays in power, the more Russia will need China, and Beijing knows it.

Thus, the China-Russia relationship is less of an equal partnership and more of a junior-senior one, with Beijing on top.

How could it be any other way?

What does Russia have to offer that China can’t?

Why would China have any long-term plans to share global hegemony with Russia?

Not a chance. Russia is a dying country, fearful of falling behind the world in economic and technological power because it is.

Russia Is Beijing’s Proxy

Still, Beijing is smart enough to leverage Putin’s weakness and megalomania by supporting his ambitions of reconstituting the Russian/Soviet empire, even though everyone, except perhaps Putin, knows that such revitalization will never happen.

China is leveraging the partnership by having Russia wage a proxy war against U.S. interests (NATO) in Europe. Putin, acting like Beijing’s useful idiot, is doing what China cannot do in Europe, which is to help dethrone the United States on the global stage.

Want more proof of the unequal alliance?

Beijing is benefitting from Russia’s economic pain by buying its oil at a fraction of what the Europeans pay because it can dictate those terms.

And Russia is good with that, clearly demonstrating where the balance of power lies in its new, “unlimited” partnership with China.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.