News Analysis
What do recent news reports suggest about the political future of progressive Democrats this year, given that President Joe Biden’s polling numbers continue to slide downward?
The latest Biden job approval numbers at RealClearPolitics, which averages the results of eight polling organizations through June 9, show that 39.4 percent of Americans approve of his job performance, while 54.9 percent disapprove.
Biden’s approval numbers are at risk of going down as the daily average price of gasoline continues to rise (now above an average of $5 per gallon nationwide), not to mention the June 10 report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that the May consumer price index (CPI) reflected a year-over-year increase of 8.6 percent, which exceeded most analysts’ expectations and was up from 8.3 percent in April.
Perhaps even more important to progressives is the Biden administration’s failure to enact their legislative priorities since they are the driving force behind Democrat policy initiatives, and passing progressive legislation into law is their raison d’être.
Progressives around the country are lamenting the failure of the Democrat-controlled federal government to deliver on issues important to them, as noted here by Democracy Now: “Given that a majority Democratic Congress and sitting Democratic president have not delivered on campaign promises such as canceling student debt, protecting Roe v. Wade and passing Build Back Better, the party will be in jeopardy in the upcoming elections.”
Will that depress the Democrat vote in November?
The presumption among many progressives would appear that delivering on these issues will somehow improve the election chances of congressional Democrats going into November. But is that really the case?
A recent Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted on June 4–5 shows that a plurality of voters are concerned with economic issues, including taxes, wages, jobs, unemployment, and spending, with “no other issues coming close,” as reported by Breitbart News (emphasis added).
Let us examine some other recent news reports and attempt to gain insight into the political future of progressive Democrats.
Defund the Police
This has been a progressive Democrat slogan since the beginning of the Black Lives Matter-related street violence that ravaged predominantly Democrat-run cities after George Floyd’s death in May 2020.Despite increasing damage to private and public property from the out-of-control riots at the time, Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) sponsored the BREATHE Act in July 2020, which would have “slash[ed] federal funds to local police along with federal agencies, and spen[t] the money on social welfare, health care, education, and environmental programs.”
With two years’ worth of “defund the police” sloganeering (see one list of Democrat supporters here), Democrats are associated with that issue in the public’s conscience.
However, Just the News reported on June 10 that “Democrat mayors and mayoral candidates now embracing comparatively pro-police and tough-on-crime policies and rhetoric,” with the clear implication that the progressive Democrats’ “defund the police” campaign is a clear loser even in Democrat-run cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Portland, and Washington.
The Generic Congressional Ballot
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll and online survey shows that if the election were held today, “48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat.”Note that the political leanings of both parties are not broken down into factions; for example, GOP establishment versus America First, or moderate versus progressive Democrat.
However, what is particularly interesting about this poll is that 26 percent of black voters and 39 percent of other minorities would vote Republican in the hypothetical election. These are core constituencies of the Democratic Party that traditionally support progressive Democrats and their policies, and the numbers represent a historical shift in their preferences. Consider that in the last midterm election in 2018, Democrats captured 90 percent of black and 69 percent of Hispanic voters, as reported by Pew Research here.
Boudin’s Recall in San Francisco
Democrats were shocked when a leading progressive Democrat district attorney was overwhelmingly recalled by San Francisco voters on June 8. Chesa Boudin, the son of left-wing radicals Kathy Boudin and David Gilbert, was elected in 2019 on a progressive platform.According to NBC News: “Boudin ran on a platform of ending ‘mass incarceration,’ eliminating cash bail, creating a unit to review wrongful convictions and refusing to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, as well as prosecuting ICE agents who violate so-called sanctuary city laws.”
After three years of car break-ins, public defecation, viral smash-and-grab robberies at major retail stores, and drug-related street crimes, crime victims and their advocates led the recall, which apparently resonated with average San Franciscans.
Boudin is one of several progressive Democrat district attorneys who are demonstrably weak on crime and facing the voters this year, with a recall effort targeting Los Angeles DA George Gascon gaining steam after Boudin’s recall.
Deputy District Attorney Jon Hatami (who preceded Boudin as San Francisco’s DA) publicly warned Gascon on June 8: “You’re next. The people of Los Angeles have had enough.”
Bottom line: weak-on-crime policies of progressive Democrats are not popular even in Democrat-run cities.
Mixed Primary Results
“All politics are local,” as the old adage goes, and each political race is driven by personality and charisma, which sometimes trump ideology and the stance on issues. Here is a smattering of primary results that featured progressive Democrat candidates:- The Biden-endorsed Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) easily defeated progressive challenger Nina Turner, who was publicly supported by progressive Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, on May 3.
- Pro-life Democrats Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) defeated progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros, an ally of “The Squad,” on May 25. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) backed Cuellar, which deepened the rift between House leaders and progressive Democrats in Congress.
- Seven-term moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) was defeated in the Democrat primary on June 1 by progressive Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner.
- While he won his primary election on 7 June, incumbent Democrat Attorney General Rob Bonta in California received just 54 percent of the vote, which is another indication that voters may be tired of the Democrats’ soft-on-crime policies.
Conclusion
Primary elections are not indicators of who will win in November, as the Democrat primary choices were essentially between center-left Democrats and far-left progressives (there are no “conservative” Democrats). The contrast between the Democratic and Republican parties is particularly stark this election season, and the Generic Congressional Ballot leans heavily Republican at this point in time.Will the progressive Democrats’ support for restrictions on the Second Amendment, multi-trillion dollar Build Back Better spending, abortion on demand, and (the fading) “defund the police” campaign overcome voters’ concerns about the economy, inflation, and federal spending?
A recent Nelson Research poll may be a harbinger: Republican Christine Drazan is just slightly ahead of progressive Democrat Tina Kotek in the governor’s race in deep blue Oregon. Republicans have not won an Oregon gubernatorial race in 40 years. That poll likely shocked the Democratic National Committee and the House Progressive Caucus (all Democrats).
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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