Poll: Trump Is Up 7 Points Over Clinton in Iowa, Crucial Swing State

November 6, 2016 Updated: November 6, 2016

A poll taken in Iowa, a crucial swing state, shows Donald Trump has a seven-point lead over Hillary Clinton.

The Des Moines Register, the largest paper in the state, released the poll of likely voters on Saturday night.

It found that Trump has 46 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson had 6 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein had 1 percent. Around 5 percent of respondents said they didn’t want to disclose their choice.

But 68 percent of people poll said they’re unhappy with their two choices.

Trump’s lead in the state is higher than the margin of error.

Iowa has six electoral votes, meaning that Trump would likely have to win the state to win the presidency. “The bigger surprise on election night would be if he lost Iowa, not that he won it,” said Amy Walter, a national editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, according to the paper.

“Donald Trump can’t afford to lose Iowa, and Hillary Clinton can,” she said. “There are multiple paths for Hillary Clinton to get to 270 electoral votes, and many of us who are watching the map have expected that Iowa may not be part of that calculus for her.”

The Register’s poll was carried out Nov. 1 to Nov. 4. It has a plus or minus 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

Trump was up by 3 points in an Iowa poll that was conducted a month ago.

President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012. George W. Bush won Iowa by approximately 10,000 in 2004.

According to a RealClearPolitics average, Clinton is up about 1.8 points over Trump nationally, with Clinton garnering 46.6 percent of the vote to Trump’s 44.8 percent.