Poll Offers Glimpse at Pennsylvania’s 2024 Political Battleground Landscape

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speaking to firefighters in Lancaster, Pa., on April 5, 2023. (Commonwealth Media Services)

Most Pennsylvanians believe the state and the country are heading in the wrong direction, a poll of 600 Pennsylvania voters shows. And a slight majority say they would support Democrats in the next elections.

When it comes to Pennsylvania, 61 percent of those polled say Pennsylvania is fundamentally off track, and 72 percent say the nation is off track. Some 71 percent would rate economic conditions in Pennsylvania as poor.

The Commonwealth Foundation, a right-leaning Pennsylvania public policy think tank connected to The Heritage Foundation, this week released results of what will be a quarterly poll, tracking sentiment about the state and nation (pdf).

Pennsylvania remains a battleground state, almost evenly divided between parties.

If the 2024 Presidential election were held today, the poll asks, how would you vote if your options were between a Republican or Democratic candidate? Of those polled, 48 percent said Democrat and 44 percent said Republican, yet 58 percent said they disapprove of the job President Joe Biden is doing.

U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, a Democrat, has a 46 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable rating. The rest are unsure how to rank him.

U.S. Senator Bob Casey is seen favorably by 48 percent of those polled and unfavorable by 35 percent.

Newly elected Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro fared better than all of them. Shapiro received a 54 percent approval rating in this poll, with 31 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing so far.

Looking to 2024

Shapiro has barely gotten his feet wet as governor, having the seat for just over three months, but 20 percent of those polled said they would like to see him run for president in 2024. There has been chatter about Shapiro’s political aspirations for as long as he has held office.

The Epoch Times asked Shapiro’s office if he is considering a run in 2024 but it did not respond.

This is how the poll broke down Pennsylvania voter preference for presidential candidates, ranked in order. Participants were allowed to choose more than one option:

• 34 percent Donald Trump
• 26 percent Ron DeSantis
• 24 percent Joe Biden
• 20 percent Josh Shapiro
• 18 percent Mike Pence
• 18 percent Kamala Harris
• 16 percent Bernie Sanders
• 14 percent Hillary Clinton
• 12 percent Pete Buttigieg
• 12 percent Nikki Haley
• 12 percent Elizabeth Warren
• 10 percent Liz Cheney
• 10 percent Amy Klobuchar

Candidates getting less than 10 percent support were (in order) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Tim Scott, Mike Pompeo, Gavin Newsom, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem, Marianne Williamson, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Sununu, and John Bolton.

Those polled were not overwhelmingly impressed with either party. The poll asked voters their opinion on political parties. Republicans were seen by 40 percent as favorable and 57 percent not favorable. Democrats were seen by 44 percent as favorable and 53 percent as not favorable.

The poll also asked who voters would like to see run for U.S. Senate in 2024. The seat is currently help by Sen. Bob Casey. Accounting for multiple responses, in order, the results were:

• 30 percent Tom Wolf
• 28 percent Bob Casey
• 20 percent Doug Mastriano
• 18 percent Mehmet Oz
• 16 percent David McCormick
• 15 percent Conor Lamb
• 7 percent Stacy Garrity
• 5 percent Carla Sands

Correction: The Commonwealth Foundation discovered a polling error five days after releasing its report. While preparing the poll, labels on some of the favorability ratings were transposed by the pollster, the foundation told The Epoch Times. This affected the favorability ratings of Republicans and Democrats in the original story.